Participants of Dragon Capital’s 10th Ukraine Investor Conference Share Views on Ukraine’s Pressing Economic and Political Issues
During the morning sessions of Dragon Capital’s 10th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference held on April 2-3, participating international and local investors as well as representatives of Ukrainian companies were asked to electronically vote on a number of questions regarding their perception of Ukraine’s investment climate and economic and political prospects.
Some questions were carried over unchanged from the 8th and 9th conferences in 2012 and 2013, providing for an interesting comparison of these results (answers received in 2012 and 2013 are shown in brackets below).
Questions posed during Panel I: After Months of Upheaval, Where and What Next for Ukraine?
1. Ukraine will regain possession of Crimea:
a.In 2014 — 1%
b.In <5 years — 22%
c.In >5 years — 38%
d.Never — 39%
2. Russia’s objective in Ukraine is to:
a.Annex the country’s eastern and southern regions — 11%
b.Make it a land of permanent turmoil, unpalatable for Western investors – 20%
c.Turn it into a protectorate by installing loyal leadership in Kyiv – 62%
d.Leave it alone after annexing Crimea – 7%
3. In your opinion, Ukraine’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Crimea:
a.Has been too weak, leaving it vulnerable to new incursions – 15%
b.Has been strategically restrained – 50%
c.Should have included a military response – 9%
d.Does not matter, as Ukraine has to rely on Western help to stop Russia – 26%
4. Ukraine’s next president will be:
a.A woman – 5%
b.A man – 90%
c.The elections scheduled for May 25 will be postponed – 5%
Questions posed during Panel II “Dealing with Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Challenges”
1. Ukraine’s biggest obstacle to economic growth and development is:
a. Its overreliance on gas imports — 14% (3% in 2013, 10% in 2012)
b. The lack of respect for the rule of law — 59% (70% in 2013, 68% in 2012)
c. The residual influence of the socialist planned economy — 11% (4% in 2013, 6% in 2012)
d. The lack of credibility of its political elite — 16% (23% in 2013, 16% in 2012)
2. Ukraine’s greatest asset is its:
a. Untapped natural resources — 13% (18% in 2013, 31% in 2012)
b. Human capital — 40% (37% in 2013, 26% in 2012)
c. Political elite — 3% (4% in 2013, 3% in 2012)
d. Geographical position — 20% (29% in 2013, 31% in 2012)
e. Emerging civil society — 24% (12% in 2013, 9% in 2012)
3. In 2014, you anticipate Ukraine’s GDP growth will be:
a. Above +2% — 2%
b. 0% to +2% — 3%
c. 0% to -2% — 27%
d. -2% to -4% — 44%
e. Below -4% — 24%
4. In GDP per capita terms, you expect Ukraine to converge with its Eastern European peers:
a. Within 5 years — 14%
b. Within 10 years — 43%
c. Within 25 years — 30%
d. Within a century — 10%
e. Never — 3%
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