Research

Welcome to our research portal. We provide comprehensive coverage on Ukrainian macroeconomics and politics as well as all major domestic industries such as metals and mining, agriculture, machine-building, fuel and energy, banking and others from both the equities and fixed income perspectives. 

Market View

  • Fixed income

    The sovereign was modestly lower (-0.5pt in longer tenors), with some light profit-taking taking place after the recent run-up. Activity in the corporate space remained very muted. A few trades went through in Metinvest at slightly stronger levels (including 23s at 84, way above the higher end of the tender offer range at 80). Some Nafto 26 trades were reported at 18.

  • Equities

    The local UX index closed unchanged yesterday, while CEEN was printed 18% lower. Abroad, FXPO dipped by 0.1% to GBp 143.6, on small turnover of $0.9m. Among agricultural names, we saw support in AST (+1.7%) and KER (+0.5%) and weakness in MHPC and IMC, both stocks losing 1.5%. The broader KP-Dragon index still closed 0.4% up on the day. We expect equities to trade higher today as global markets are generally stronger.

Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
IMC PW PLN 16.2 17.1 17.1 7.2
FXPO LN GBp 148.4 148.6 148.4 3.3
MLK PW PLN 0.835 0.87 0.87 0.7
ENW LN GBp 24.5 25.0 24.75 0.6
KSG PW PLN 2.205 2.28 2.28 0.0
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
KER PW PLN 17.95 18.0 17.95 -1.8
AST PW PLN 20.55 20.7 20.55 -0.2
KSG PW PLN 2.205 2.28 2.28 0.0
OVO PW PLN 42.2 46.4 46.4 0.0
MSICH UAH _ _ _ 0.0
Ticker Currency Close 1D, % Volume
2 2 2 2.0 2
0.0
I I I 0.0 I
/ / / 0.0 /
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
SPX 4087.15 0.17 5.99 -14.25
PFTS 519.2 0.00 0.00 -0.68
DAX 14490.3 0.65 8.63 -8.78
FTSE100 7558.49 -0.19 5.18 2.36
MICEX 2187.29 0.59 0.60 -42.25
KP-Dragon 1,119.77 0.41 5.60 -55.03
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
CDX.EM 94.52135 0.00 2.60 -1.48
5-year UST 100.96875 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-year UST 105.140625 0.00 0.00 0.00
6M USD LIBOR 5.20343 -0.10 5.53 1436.07
12M USD LIBOR 5.57157 0.33 3.77 855.46
Ukraine 22 34.0 -6.85 -31.31 -65.79
Ukraine 33 22.5 -2.17 15.38 -74.58
Ukraine 24 26.5 -3.64 15.22 -73.33
Ukraine 35 20.0 -6.98 25.00 -77.40
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
UAH:USD (NBU) 36.57 0.00 0.00 -25.41
UAH:EUR (NBU) 38.2 -0.75 -4.86 -19.06
USD:GBP 1.22 1.53 6.60 -9.53
USD:EUR 1.05 1.12 6.54 -7.45
PLN:USD 4.46 0.68 6.83 -9.47
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 81.22 0.83 -8.09 5.49
Corn ($/t) 260.6 -0.56 -2.75 11.59
Wheat ($/t) 283.4 1.81 -6.96 0.10
Sugar ($/t) 432.8 0.51 11.66 3.97
DCUAHTOT 100.4 -0.28 -0.43 -4.59
DCPI 148.70 0.50 25.97 250.78
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
AST PW PLN 20.55 20.70 20.55 -0.24
BAVL UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CEEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FXPO LN GBp 148.40 148.60 148.40 3.34
IMC PW PLN 16.20 17.10 17.10 7.21
KER PW PLN 17.95 18.00 17.95 -1.81
MHPC LI USD 3.25 3.35 3.35 0.00
OVO PW PLN 42.20 46.40 46.40 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
MLK PW PLN 0.83 0.87 0.87 0.69
DOEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KVBZ UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TATM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
UTLM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MSICH UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KSG PW PLN 2.21 2.28 2.28 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %

Notes:

*The Dragon Capital Terms of Trade Index (Bloomberg ticker: DCUAHTOT) measures the relative dynamics of key commodities exported and imported by Ukraine, including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, steel, iron ore, crude oil and natural gas. The index is set equal to 100 in the base year of 2019. Higher index values mean export prices outperform import prices, and vice versa. For more information, please refer to this research note (link) or contact your Dragon Capital contact person.

***Dragon Commodity Price Index (DCPI) is an equally weighted price index launched in 2007 to track tracks prices of all key commodities, which Ukraine either consumes or exports. The DCPI currently includes prices of wheat, sunflower oil, sugar, corn, natural gas, crude oil, hot rolled steel, iron ore and thermal coal. The DCPI is calculated on a daily basis from base level of one set for Dec. 31, 2000.

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