Research

Welcome to our research portal. We provide comprehensive coverage on Ukrainian macroeconomics and politics as well as all major domestic industries such as metals and mining, agriculture, machine-building, fuel and energy, banking and others from both the equities and fixed income perspectives. 

Market View

  • Fixed income

    The sovereign was stuck between weak global markets and some investor demand for lower-priced long-end bonds. The curve closed unchanged, with some trading in the 34s and 35s closer to the offer side (19). A trade in decent size was reported in MHPSA 24s at 49, down 3pt vs. recent levels. It is hard to speculate about the reasons, the move could just be a reflection of relatively low liquidity in the corporate space.

  • Equities

    The local UX index rose by 0.7% yesterday thanks to an 8.9% bounce in BAVL. Foreign-listed equities closed mixed: FXPO dropped by 3.1% to GBp 118 on a $1.2m volume, KER fell by 3.3% to PLN 17.4, AST inched 1.4% lower to PLN 21.7, while MHPC and IMC went up 3.7% and 1.2%, respectively. As a result, the KP-Dragon index ended the day 0.6% higher. With mixed global markets, we expect Ukrainian equities to trade sideways today.

Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
MLK PW PLN 0.802 0.864 0.864 4.6
IMC PW PLN 16.9 17.4 17.15 1.8
KSG PW PLN 2.25 2.26 2.25 0.2
ENW LN GBp 23.4 24.0 23.4 0.0
UTLM UAH _ _ _ 0.0
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
FXPO LN GBp 115.2 116.0 115.7 -5.6
KER PW PLN 17.84 18.0 17.9 -0.5
AST PW PLN 21.5 21.9 21.9 -0.5
ENW LN GBp 23.4 24.0 23.4 0.0
UTLM UAH _ _ _ 0.0
Ticker Currency Close 1D, % Volume
2 2 2 2.0 2
0.0
I I I 0.0 I
/ / / 0.0 /
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
SPX 3719.04 1.97 -7.73 -21.97
PFTS 519.2 0.00 0.00 -0.68
DAX 12010.4 -1.42 -6.85 -24.39
FTSE100 6880.26 -1.79 -7.37 -6.83
MICEX 1974.84 0.56 -14.00 -47.86
KP-Dragon 1,064.97 -1.12 -10.36 -57.23
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
CDX.EM 90.64998 0.00 -0.16 -5.52
5-year UST 100.1640625 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-year UST 91.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
6M USD LIBOR 4.20814 -0.89 17.99 1142.26
12M USD LIBOR 4.85171 -1.09 17.67 732.01
Ukraine 22 34.0 -6.85 -31.31 -65.79
Ukraine 33 22.5 -2.17 15.38 -74.58
Ukraine 24 27.0 -3.70 -18.75 -73.84
Ukraine 35 18.5 -5.41 -16.67 -80.23
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
UAH:USD (NBU) 36.57 0.00 0.00 -25.41
UAH:EUR (NBU) 34.97 0.81 4.52 -11.58
USD:GBP 1.08 -0.67 -7.97 -20.28
USD:EUR 0.96 -0.59 -3.69 -15.17
PLN:USD 5.05 -1.79 -6.47 -20.10
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 82.15 4.65 -11.72 6.70
Corn ($/t) 264.0 0.45 0.26 13.02
Wheat ($/t) 331.9 3.64 15.10 17.19
Sugar ($/t) 403.3 0.55 -0.97 -3.12
DCUAHTOT 101.3 -0.44 1.19 -3.76
DCPI 108.83 2.39 -4.50 156.73
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
AST PW PLN 21.50 21.90 21.90 -0.45
BAVL UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CEEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FXPO LN GBp 115.20 116.00 115.70 -5.63
IMC PW PLN 16.90 17.40 17.15 1.78
KER PW PLN 17.84 18.00 17.90 -0.50
MHPC LI USD 3.58 3.75 3.58 0.00
OVO PW PLN 55.50 55.50 55.50 0.00
UNAF UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
MSICH UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KSG PW PLN 2.25 2.26 2.25 0.22
MLK PW PLN 0.80 0.86 0.86 4.64
DOEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KVBZ UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TATM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
UTLM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %

Notes:

*The Dragon Capital Terms of Trade Index (Bloomberg ticker: DCUAHTOT) measures the relative dynamics of key commodities exported and imported by Ukraine, including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, steel, iron ore, crude oil and natural gas. The index is set equal to 100 in the base year of 2019. Higher index values mean export prices outperform import prices, and vice versa. For more information, please refer to this research note (link) or contact your Dragon Capital contact person.

***Dragon Commodity Price Index (DCPI) is an equally weighted price index launched in 2007 to track tracks prices of all key commodities, which Ukraine either consumes or exports. The DCPI currently includes prices of wheat, sunflower oil, sugar, corn, natural gas, crude oil, hot rolled steel, iron ore and thermal coal. The DCPI is calculated on a daily basis from base level of one set for Dec. 31, 2000.

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