Research

Welcome to our research portal. We provide comprehensive coverage on Ukrainian macroeconomics and politics as well as all major domestic industries such as metals and mining, agriculture, machine-building, fuel and energy, banking and others from both the equities and fixed income perspectives. 

Market View

  • Fixed income

    The sovereign continued to grind lower (down 0.5-1.5pt), pressured by both global markets and reports of extremely intense fighting in Donbas. Not much was happening in quasi-sovereigns and corporates, mostly unchanged levels there.

  • Equities

    The KP-Dragon index ended the day 2% lower as most foreign-listed stocks were under selling pressure. MHPC was the worst performer among agricultural names, down 3.1% to $4.65, followed by AST (-2.9%), IMC (-1.7%) and KER (-1.1%). FXPO lost 6.5% on an average-sized volume of $2.6m, closing at GBp 170.

Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
OVO PW PLN 42.8 44.6 44.6 5.8
AST PW PLN 27.35 27.65 27.65 4.3
KSG PW PLN 2.615 2.7 2.7 4.2
MLK PW PLN 1.076 1.09 1.076 3.3
FXPO LN GBp 173.9 174.4 173.9 2.3
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
ENW LN GBp 20.0 20.4 20.25 0.0
UTLM UAH _ _ _ 0.0
TATM UAH _ _ _ 0.0
KVBZ UAH _ _ _ 0.0
DOEN UAH _ _ _ 0.0
Ticker Currency Close 1D, % Volume
FXPO LN GBp 173.9 2.3 43432.43
AST PW PLN 27.65 4.3 16.94
MHPC LI USD 4.65 0.0 16.09
KER PW PLN 28.56 0.6 8.76
IMC PW PLN 17.95 1.4 6.78
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
SPX 3941.48 -0.81 -8.25 -17.30
PFTS 519.2 0.00 0.00 -0.68
DAX 13978.85 0.42 0.39 -12.00
FTSE100 7519.9 0.47 1.89 1.83
MICEX 2310.4 0.73 5.68 -39.00
KP-Dragon 1,499.98 -1.95 -4.61 -39.77
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
CDX.EM 91.66811 0.00 -0.94 -4.46
5-year UST 100.0546875 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-year UST 101.140625 0.00 0.00 0.00
6M USD LIBOR 2.06186 -0.18 13.06 508.67
12M USD LIBOR 2.718 -0.44 4.27 366.11
Ukraine 22 70.0 -1.43 23.21 -30.57
Ukraine 33 36.5 -2.74 7.58 -59.89
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
UAH:USD (NBU) 29.25 0.00 0.00 -6.76
UAH:EUR (NBU) 31.34 -0.53 0.33 -1.34
USD:GBP 1.25 -0.01 -1.54 -7.38
USD:EUR 1.07 -0.54 -0.39 -6.13
PLN:USD 4.3 -0.43 0.96 -6.20
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 112.02 -0.90 8.68 45.50
Corn ($/t) 303.8 -1.84 -2.68 30.09
Wheat ($/t) 424.3 -2.96 8.38 49.82
Sugar ($/t) 435.5 -0.10 2.65 4.61
DCUAHTOT 107.9 -0.04 0.13 2.51
DCPI 62.51 -0.84 5.31 47.46
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
AST PW PLN 27.35 27.65 27.65 4.34
BAVL UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CEEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FXPO LN GBp 173.90 174.40 173.90 2.30
IMC PW PLN 17.75 17.95 17.95 1.41
KER PW PLN 28.26 28.58 28.56 0.63
MHPC LI USD 4.65 4.90 4.65 0.00
OVO PW PLN 42.80 44.60 44.60 5.80
UNAF UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
MSICH UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KSG PW PLN 2.62 2.70 2.70 4.23
MLK PW PLN 1.08 1.09 1.08 3.29
DOEN UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
KVBZ UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TATM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
UTLM UAH 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %

Notes:

*The Dragon Capital Terms of Trade Index (Bloomberg ticker: DCUAHTOT) measures the relative dynamics of key commodities exported and imported by Ukraine, including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, steel, iron ore, crude oil and natural gas. The index is set equal to 100 in the base year of 2019. Higher index values mean export prices outperform import prices, and vice versa. For more information, please refer to this research note (link) or contact your Dragon Capital contact person.

***Dragon Commodity Price Index (DCPI) is an equally weighted price index launched in 2007 to track tracks prices of all key commodities, which Ukraine either consumes or exports. The DCPI currently includes prices of wheat, sunflower oil, sugar, corn, natural gas, crude oil, hot rolled steel, iron ore and thermal coal. The DCPI is calculated on a daily basis from base level of one set for Dec. 31, 2000.

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