Political Panel. 14th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference
03.03.2018
- Dragon Capital held its 14th Annual Ukraine Investor Conference on March 1-2 in Kyiv. As in previous years, the event gathered close to 300 guests, with top speakers addressing the audience of international and local investors including Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, other government members, top management of leading Ukrainian companies, representatives of international financial institutions and western diplomats. Over 25 Ukrainian and foreign TV channels, news wires and other print and online media covered the event.
Below please find highlights from the keynote speeches delivered by Pavlo Rizanenko, Member of parliamentary faction of Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Oleh Berezyuk, Head of parliamentary faction of Samopomich Union, Roman Bezsmertnyi, Member of Ukrainian Parliament (1994-2007), Diplomat, Olexiy Haran, Professor of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Research Director, Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Volodymyr Fesenko, Chairman of the Board, Center for Applied Political Studies Penta.
Mr. Rizanenko sought to refute recent media speculation about President Poroshenko allegedly considering a scenario of holding early parliamentary elections this year. His argument was that if preparations for snap elections were indeed underway, that would manifest itself in activity on the ground such as the setting up of local election headquarters by leading political parties, etc. According to him, there was nothing of the sort in his Kyiv region constituency where he was elected in 2014. - On the situation in parliament, he said the ruling coalition’s legislative capacity weakened after it went down to two parties from five in 2015, but it has since succeeded in scraping together temporary majority alliances depending on the issue in question. This was especially evident last fall and winter when a number of important IMF-required and other reforms were passed.
- Mr. Berezyuk praised the IMF for putting establishment of the anti-corruption court among its key lending requirements for Ukraine, saying it would mark a major qualitative change on the way to building a proper system of justice in the country. “Let this court pronounce verdicts in five [high-level corruption] cases, and the investment climate in Ukraine will change.”
- He said a second key reform was the passage of a new law on parliamentary elections to scrap elections in single-seat constituencies and introduce a full proportional representation system based on open partly lists. Otherwise, the existing system of vested interests will continue to reproduce itself from parliament to parliament by buying up votes to get elected.
- Mr. Bezsmertnyi, drawing on his more than 20 years’ experience in domestic politics, said Ukraine’s current political system was in dire need of reform due to its flawed distribution of powers generating conflicts between the president, government and parliament. As a result, the existing system effectively gave rise to two competing governments, one seated on Hrushevskoho street (Cabinet of Ministers) and the other on Bankova (Presidential Administration).
- He called for a system reboot by drafting and adopting an entirely new constitution and introducing a three-year transitional period to set up new government institutions and ensure they start to function properly under new checks and balances.
- On the conflict in the east, Mr. Bezsmertnyi, who in 2015-2016 was a member of the Ukraine-Russia-OSCE Trilateral Contact Group negotiating to facilitate a diplomatic settlement on Donbas, said this arrangement was not going to produce a viable solution.
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- Greater involvement of the U.S. and the EU, including through restoration of the four-way Normandy talks (France, Germany, Ukraine, Russia) is needed for a lasting peace deal.
- Mr. Haran said the IMF-required bill on the anti-corruption court would ultimately be approved, with pressure from the west and domestic civil society prevailing over resistance from vested interests. He cited his firm’s recent surveys of public opinion gauging Ukrainians’ electoral preferences, saying the polls showed no sufficient impetus among the general public for accelerating early parliamentary elections.
- On presidential elections, uncertainty about the final list of major contenders makes it difficult to forecast the outcome at this stage, especially as campaigning is yet to start. For example, polls which included musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk among potential presidential contenders appeared to favor the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, putting him in first place ahead of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. In contrast, Tymoshenko led in the polls which excluded Vakarchuk.
- Mr. Fesenko expressed his skepticism about the prospects for early elections this year, saying it would be counter-productive for President Poroshenko to hold a parliamentary ballot before presidential elections scheduled for March 2019.
- Only a major political crisis could trigger a snap ballot, but that is not a realistic scenario at this stage. The current administration could benefit from holding presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously, but that is not a viable prospect either.
- On the conflict in Donbas, he said the looming election campaigns in Ukraine will further delay resolution, with the next window of opportunity for talks unlikely to open until after the 2019 ballots.