Ukraine economy

Basic Information

  • Capital: Kyiv
  • President: Volodymyr Zelensky
  • Dialing code: +380
  • Population: 45.4 million (2013)
  • Currency: Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH)
  • GDP per capita: 2,192 USD (2016)

The second largest country in Europe, Ukraine is strategically located in the southeastern part of the continent, bordering on Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova to the west and southwest, Belarus and Russia to the north and east, and washed by the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in the south The country’s total area is 603,700 km2.

Key macroeconomic indicators:

  Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-00 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Real Sector
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 2.3% 4.1% 0.8% 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% (1.0%) (1.7%) 2.4% 4.3% 3.3% 0.6%
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 36.4% (11.2%) 9.0% 11.4% (7.6%) 2.7% 0.0% 3.0% 3.6% 3.5% (0.2%) 0.8% 12.2%
Av. Wage ($/month) 349 347 326 321 328 381 0 331 347 381 383 388 407
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 9.9% 8.9% 9.0% 8.9% 10.0% 9.8% 0.0% 9.2% 8.8% 8.6% 8.8% 9.6% 9.0%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 9.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% 8.9% 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 18.4% 18.1% 19.3% 18.9% 16.5% 14.2% 0.0% 10.4% 10.2% 8.9% 7.3% 8.5% 4.5%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (2.3) (3.0) (3.1) (4.3) (6.0) (6.5) 0.0 0.4 0.0 (0.6) (1.0) (1.1) (1.9)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (3.7%) - - (4.3%) - (4.9%) 0.0% - - (3.8%) - - (4.4%)
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (3.9) (5.5) (6.5) (8.1) (10.5) (11.4) 0.0 (0.1) (1.2) (1.9) (2.7) (3.5) (4.8)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 28.5 33.3 38.5 43.2 53.9 59.2 0.0 5.0 9.8 15.1 20.2 25.9 30.6
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 11.5% 11.8% 11.6% 10.2% 9.9% 9.7% 0.0% 10.7% 9.4% 8.9% 7.5% 8.8% 7.2%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 32.4 38.8 45.0 51.3 64.4 70.6 0.0 5.1 11.0 17.0 23.0 29.4 35.4
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 12.7% 14.1% 13.7% 13.8% 13.8% 12.5% 0.0% 1.1% 8.0% 7.8% 9.0% 9.4% 9.2%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.2) 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.9 7.0 9.3 0.0 (0.5) (0.3) 0.9 1.3 0.7 2.6
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)2 55,699.7% 64,455.2% 73,498.0% 84,264.6% 105,280.6% 125,206.7% 0.0% 7,432.6% 16,289.8% 28,373.8% 39,370.1% 50,689.0% 62,162.9%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 251.1% (37.4%) 2,646.5% 662.2% 1,411.0% (7,568.0%) 0.0% (39.9%) 321.8% (1,046.7%) 1,612.3% 3,236.0% 1,956.2%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn)2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Public Debt ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 2,913.3% 2,840.0% 2,730.9% 2,715.8% 2,650.4% 2,786.1% 0.0% 2,791.7% 2,816.8% 2,842.4% 2,958.3% 2,968.2% 3,030.9%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 47 47 48 48 48 50 0 50 50 50 50 49 50
External Public Debt ($bn) 13 13 12 12 12 13 0 13 13 12 12 12 12
Debt to IMF ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 121,280.8% 122,979.2% 123,342.2% 124,936.5% 122,877.6% 127,763.5% 0.0% 125,824.1% 125,536.0% 125,305.9% 126,445.2% 125,992.0% 128,897.4%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 102,335.0% 104,241.7% 108,805.8% 109,995.9% 111,687.7% 107,025.6% 0.0% 105,715.8% 103,360.7% 105,158.0% 104,398.9% 102,563.0% 102,171.0%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (0)
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) 86,645.0% 88,029.4% 88,710.6% 89,827.0% 87,311.0% 90,994.5% 0.0% 90,550.2% 90,786.2% 90,575.9% 90,861.5% 90,700.4% 92,647.4%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 18.0% 17.9% 18.8% 20.7% 20.7% 21.9% 0.0% 21.0% 18.9% 18.9% 19.1% 19.4% 19.5%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 11.5% 11.9% 12.2% 12.7% 14.0% 14.2% 0.0% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.0% 13.0% 13.3%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 18.0 17.7 17.2 16.6 17.7 20.8 0.0 20.8 20.2 20.6 20.5 19.4 20.6
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.5 0.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.4
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 26.3 26.8 28.3 28.3 28.4 27.7 0.0 27.8 27.0 27.2 26.5 26.9 26.2
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 26.22 26.39 27.50 28.19 27.95 27.74 0.00 27.89 27.14 26.84 26.79 26.37 26.49
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 26.35 26.92 28.25 28.23 28.18 27.74 0.00 27.63 26.88 27.31 26.40 26.85 26.15
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 26.23 26.43 27.57 28.18 27.94 27.71 0.00 27.90 27.10 26.87 26.73 26.38 26.45
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19
Real Sector
Real GDP (y-o-y; %) 2.7% 3.7% 2.9% 4.7% 3.9%
Household Consumption (y-o-y; %) 12.1% 9.2% 12.3% 13.7% 10.2%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (y-o-y; %) 15.1% 13.1% 16.5% 6.7% 13.2%
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)1 995 1,050 815 1,748 2,860
Nominal GDP ($bn) 37 38 30 35 44
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 2.1% 1.9% (0.1%) 2.7% 1.1%
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 3.1% 7.9% 3.4% 4.3% 5.2%
Av. Wage ($/month) 332 346 353 393 425
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 8.9% 9.8% 8.6% 9.0% 7.5%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 8.7% 8.7% 7.6% 7.4% 6.5%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 18.9% 14.2% 8.9% 4.5% 1.7%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (4.3) (6.5) (0.6) (1.9) (5.6)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (4.3%) (4.9%) (3.8%) (4.4%) (5.3%)
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (8.1) (11.4) (1.9) (4.8) (9.0)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 43.2 59.2 15.1 30.6 46.9
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 10.2% 9.7% 8.9% 7.2% 8.5%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 51.3 70.6 17.0 35.4 55.9
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 13.8% 12.5% 7.8% 9.2% 8.9%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) 1.0 1.3 0.4 1.2 0.8
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 2.7 3.7 0.9 1.7 2.6
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 3.9 9.3 0.9 2.6 7.8
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn) 2 0 0 0 0 0
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 2 84,264.6% 125,206.7% 28,373.8% 62,162.9% 94,111.1%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 662.2% (7,568.0%) (1,046.7%) 1,956.2% 724.1%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2 0 0 0 0 0
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Public Debt ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 2,715.8% 2,786.1% 2,842.4% 3,030.9% 3,479.3%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 48 50 50 50 48
External Public Debt ($bn) 12 13 12 12 11
Debt to IMF ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 124,936.5% 127,763.5% 125,305.9% 128,897.4% 130,525.5%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 109,995.9% 107,025.6% 105,158.0% 102,171.0% 98,766.2%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 (0) (0)
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) 89,827.0% 90,994.5% 90,575.9% 92,647.4% 94,356.7%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 0 0 0 0 0
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 20.7% 21.9% 18.9% 19.5% 20.5%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 12.7% 14.2% 13.4% 13.3% 13.2%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 16.6 20.8 20.6 20.6 21.4
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.2 24.1
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 27.36 27.94 27.29 26.55 25.25
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 28.23 27.74 27.31 26.15 24.36
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 27.39 27.92 27.29 26.52 25.22
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  2017 2018 2019 2020E Base-case 2020E Severe
Real Sector *** ***
Real GDP Growth (y-o-y; %) 2.5% 3.4% 3.2% *** ***
Nominal GDP (UAH bn) 2,983 3,561 3,975 *** ***
Nominal GDP ($bn) 112 131 154 *** ***
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $) 2,647 3,106 3,672 *** ***
Real Industrial Output (y-o-y; %) 1.1% 3.0% (0.5%) *** ***
Real Agricultural Output (y-o-y; %) (2.7%) 7.8% 1.1% *** ***
Average Wage ($/month) 267 326 407 *** ***
Unemployment (by ILO methodology; %) 9.5% 8.8% 8.2% *** ***
Prices *** ***
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 13.7% 9.8% 4.1% *** ***
Consumer Price Index (avg.; y-o-y; %) 14.4% 10.9% 7.9% *** ***
GDP Deflator (y-o-y; %) 22.0% 15.4% 8.1% *** ***
External Sector *** ***
Current Account Balance ($bn) (3.5) (6.5) (4.2) *** ***
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (3.1%) (4.9%) (2.7%) *** ***
Exports ($bn) 53.9 59.2 63.5 *** ***
Imports ($bn) 62.7 70.6 76.0 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow ($bn) 3.7 4.5 5.2 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow (% of GDP) 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% *** ***
Gross External Debt ($bn) 115 115 122 *** ***
Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 103% 88% 79% *** ***
Public Finances** *** ***
General Government Revenues (% of GDP) 38.4% 38.7% 38.5% *** ***
General Government Spending (% of GDP) 40.8% 41.0% 40.7% *** ***
General Government Balance (% of GDP) (2.4%) (2.3%) (2.2%) *** ***
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% *** ***
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Combined Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.4%) (2.3%) (2.2%) *** ***
Banking System Budget Support (% of GDP) (2.4%) 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Total Public Debt ($bn) 76.3 78.3 84.4 *** ***
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 71.8% 60.9% 50.3% *** ***
External Public Debt ($bn) 49.0 50.2 48.9 *** ***
Debt to IMF ($bn) 14.0 13.3 11.2 *** ***
Monetary & Banking Indicators *** ***
Broad Money (M2) Growth (y-o-y; %) 9.7% 5.5% 12.7% *** ***
Total Credits (% of GDP) 34.0% 30.1% 24.3% *** ***
F/X Loans (% of total) 43.9% 42.9% 37.1% *** ***
Total Deposits (% of GDP) 29.4% 25.6% 26.4% *** ***
F/X Deposits (% of total) 43.9% 40.6% 38.9% *** ***
Credit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 15.3% 18.7% 19.6% *** ***
Deposit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 9.1% 12.0% 13.0% *** ***
Forex *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 18.8 20.8 25.3 *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves (months of imports) 3.6 3.5 4.0 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 28.07 27.69 23.69 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 26.59 27.20 25.80 *** ***
Note: *nominal indicators for 2014 and following years exclude Crimea, y-o-y changes are calculated with 2013 numbers rebased to exclude Crimea; **IMF estimates for years through 2015, DC estimates for 2016 onwards. SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics; the general government balance includes the central and local budgets and Pension Fund, but excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy deficit and bank rehabilitation costs. Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, IMF, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

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