Економіка України

Основна інформація

  • Столиця: Київ
  • Президент: Володимир Зеленський
  • Телефонний код: +380
  • Населення: 45,4 млн. (2013 р.)
  • Валюта: Українська гривня (грн)
  • ВВП на душу населення: 2,192 $ (2016 рік)

Україна є другою за величиною країни в Європі. Її територія розташована в південно-східній частині континенту: на заході та південному заході Україна межує з Польщею, Словаччиною, Угорщиною, Румунією та Молдовою, на півночі та сході — з Республікою Білорусь та Росією, а на півдні омивається водами Чорного та Азовського морів. Загальна площа держави складає 603 700 км2.

Ключові макроекономічні індикатори:

  Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Реальний сектор
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 1.2% 0.4% (5.9%) (6.7%) (5.1%) (1.5%) (7.7%) (16.2%) (12.2%) (5.6%) (4.2%) (5.3%) (4.4%)
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) (11.8%) 9.0% (18.5%) (14.4%) (0.7%) 1.0% (5.2%) (0.2%) (4.0%) (40.6%) (5.8%) (5.5%) (19.2%)
Av. Wage ($/month) 417 432 438 520 444 441 433 383 393 434 432 416 429
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 8.8% 7.5% 5.1% 4.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.3%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 7.2% 6.5% 4.8% 3.9% 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 4.5% 1.7% (4.5%) (7.4%) (5.9%) (6.8%) (4.2%) (2.6%) (5.1%) (4.6%) (7.5%) (4.7%) (1.7%)
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (3.7) (5.6) (6.3) (4.1) 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.2
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) - (5.3%) - (2.7%) - - (0.8%) - - 1.1% - - -
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (7.5) (9.0) (11.3) (12.5) 0.1 (0.5) (0.9) (0.1) 0.4 0.1 (0.5) (0.6) (1.0)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 41.7 47.0 58.1 63.6 5.1 10.1 15.3 20.0 24.3 28.5 33.2 38.3 43.4
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 8.3% 8.7% 7.8% 7.4% 1.6% 2.6% 1.1% (1.1%) (6.2%) (7.0%) (8.3%) (8.1%) (7.7%)
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 49.2 55.9 69.4 76.1 5.0 10.6 16.1 20.1 23.9 28.4 33.7 38.9 44.3
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 9.4% 9.0% 7.6% 7.8% (1.7%) (3.5%) (4.9%) (12.6%) (18.6%) (19.8%) (20.8%) (20.9%) (20.7%)
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.7
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 2.3 2.6 3.2 6.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 4.8 6.2 7.4 8.5 (0.4) (0.4) (3.0) (3.4) (4.4) (1.2) (1.3) (1.6) (3.7)
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)2 857 948 1,163 1,288 73 171 281 404 500 654 748 876 977
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)2 12.6% 11.7% 9.0% 9.5% (1.6%) 2.7% 2.7% (1.5%) (7.2%) 2.0% 0.6% 2.2% 3.0%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 823 941 1,171 1,374 76 173 298 414 532 657 780 892 1,036
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 12.0% 11.7% 11.2% 9.7% 2.0% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.0% 5.7% 8.0% 8.3% 10.1%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn)2 34 7 (8) (86) (3) (3) (17) (11) (32) (3) (32) (15) (59)
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (1.8%) (2.0%) (2.4%) (2.2%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (3.0%) (4.0%) (3.1%) (3.9%) (3.7%) (4.1%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 82 83 83 84 83 83 80 81 82 85 85 85 83
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 53.4% 51.1% 50.4% 50.3% 52.2% 51.3% 56.3% 55.1% 55.8% 57.6% 59.7% 59.3% 59.4%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 32 35 34 35 33 34 31 32 34 34 33 32 32
External Public Debt ($bn) 50 48 48 49 50 50 49 49 48 51 53 53 51
Debt to IMF ($bn) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 13
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 446 441 447 477 470 463 482 512 520 533 549 562 568
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 5.7% 3.9% 3.3% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7% 17.2% 21.2% 19.7% 25.8% 26.2% 28.8%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,303 1,305 1,332 1,438 1,466 1,477 1,517 1,545 1,578 1,611 1,666 1,675 1,722
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 5.7% 4.5% 8.4% 12.6% 16.5% 17.6% 21.1% 22.2% 25.3% 24.9% 27.0% 28.5% 31.9%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,009 988 996 967 968 964 1,030 997 987 987 1,008 1,010 972
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) (7.3%) (10.2%) (10.9%) (9.6%) (8.4%) (6.8%) (2.1%) (4.5%) (3.8%) (3.4%) 0.1% 0.1% (1.5%)
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 945 944 969 1,051 1,092 1,100 1,125 1,124 1,141 1,159 1,201 1,202 1,244
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 6.5% 5.0% 11.0% 15.5% 20.6% 21.1% 24.2% 23.7% 25.8% 25.1% 26.2% 27.2% 31.8%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 21.0% 20.5% 18.7% 18.2% 16.7% 15.6% 16.4% 15.4% 13.9% 13.4% 12.5% 12.3% 12.0%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 13.3% 13.2% 11.8% 10.8% 9.5% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 6.9% 6.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 0.3 0.9 0.9 2.9 0.1 0.7 (2.2) 0.7 0.7 1.2 (0.4) 0.5 (0.2)
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 22.0 21.4 21.9 25.3 26.3 27.0 24.9 25.7 25.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 26.5
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.9
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 25.23 24.08 24.04 23.69 24.92 24.56 28.06 26.97 26.91 26.69 27.69 27.48 28.30
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 25.24 24.76 24.35 23.58 24.15 24.59 26.42 27.20 26.81 26.71 27.31 27.51 27.98
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 25.15 24.36 23.98 23.77 25.04 24.66 27.60 26.96 26.85 26.70 27.73 27.56 28.29
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 25.24 24.72 24.30 23.58 24.24 24.55 26.59 27.17 26.81 26.71 27.37 27.51 28.02
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20
Реальний сектор
Реальний ВВП (% р/р) 3.9% 1.5% (1.3%) (11.4%) (3.5%)
Household Consumption (y-o-y; %) 10.2% 11.7% 8.1% (10.4%) -
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (y-o-y; %) 13.2% 18.6% (21.4%) (22.3%) -
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)1 1,112 1,115 846 868 -
Nominal GDP ($bn) 44 45 34 32 -
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 1.1% (5.2%) (4.8%) (11.3%) (4.6%)
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 5.2% (13.2%) (1.6%) (14.9%) (19.2%)
Av. Wage ($/month) 425 464 440 403 426
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 7.5% 4.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 6.5% 3.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 1.7% (7.4%) (4.2%) (4.6%) (1.7%)
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (5.6) (4.1) 2.3 4.0 4.2
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (5.3%) (2.7%) (0.8%) 1.1% -
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (9.0) (12.5) (0.9) 0.1 (1.0)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 47.0 63.6 15.3 28.5 43.4
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 8.7% 7.4% 1.1% (7.0%) (7.7%)
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 55.9 76.1 16.1 28.4 44.3
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 9.0% 7.8% (4.9%) (19.8%) (20.7%)
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.7
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 2.6 6.5 0.8 1.7 2.5
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 6.2 8.5 (3.0) (1.2) (3.7)
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn) 118 122 120 123 -
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn) 2 948 1,288 281 654 977
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 2 11.7% 9.5% 2.7% 2.0% 3.0%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 941 1,374 298 657 1,036
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 11.7% 9.7% 5.0% 5.7% 10.1%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2 7 (86) (17) (3) (59)
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (2.0%) (2.2%) (2.4%) (3.1%) (4.1%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 83 84 80 85 83
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 51.1% 50.3% 56.3% 57.6% 59.4%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 35 35 31 34 32
External Public Debt ($bn) 48 49 49 51 51
Debt to IMF ($bn) 11 11 11 13 13
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 441 477 482 533 568
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 3.9% 9.6% 13.7% 19.7% 28.8%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,305 1,438 1,517 1,611 1,722
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 4.5% 12.6% 21.1% 24.9% 31.9%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 988 967 1,030 987 972
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) (10.2%) (9.6%) (2.1%) (3.4%) (1.5%)
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 944 1,051 1,125 1,159 1,244
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 5.0% 15.5% 24.2% 25.1% 31.8%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 20.5% 18.2% 16.4% 13.4% 12.0%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 13.2% 10.8% 7.7% 6.0% 4.6%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 2.5 4.0 (1.4) 2.5 (0.1)
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 21.4 25.3 24.9 28.5 26.5
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.4 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.9
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 24.08 23.69 28.06 26.69 28.30
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 25.25 24.25 25.05 26.91 27.60
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 24.36 23.77 27.60 26.70 28.29
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 25.22 24.24 25.13 26.89 27.63
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F
Реальний сектор *** ***
Ріст реального ВВП (% р/р) 2.5% 3.4% 3.2% *** ***
Nominal GDP (UAH bn) 2,983 3,561 3,975 *** ***
Nominal GDP ($bn) 112 131 154 *** ***
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $) 2,647 3,106 3,677 *** ***
Real Industrial Output (y-o-y; %) 1.1% 3.0% (0.5%) *** ***
Real Agricultural Output (y-o-y; %) (2.7%) 7.8% 1.1% *** ***
Average Wage ($/month) 267 326 407 *** ***
Unemployment (by ILO methodology; %) 9.5% 8.8% 8.2% *** ***
Prices *** ***
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 13.7% 9.8% 4.1% *** ***
Consumer Price Index (avg.; y-o-y; %) 14.4% 10.9% 7.9% *** ***
GDP Deflator (y-o-y; %) 22.0% 15.4% 8.1% *** ***
External Sector *** ***
Current Account Balance ($bn) (3.5) (6.4) (4.1) *** ***
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (3.1%) (4.9%) (2.7%) *** ***
Exports ($bn) 53.9 59.2 63.6 *** ***
Imports ($bn) 62.7 70.6 76.1 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow ($bn) 3.7 4.5 5.2 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow (% of GDP) 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% *** ***
Gross External Debt ($bn) 115 115 122 *** ***
Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 103% 88% 79% *** ***
Public Finances** *** ***
General Government Revenues (% of GDP) 38.4% 38.7% 38.5% *** ***
General Government Spending (% of GDP) 40.8% 41.0% 40.7% *** ***
General Government Balance (% of GDP) (2.4%) (2.3%) (2.2%) *** ***
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% *** ***
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Combined Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.4%) (2.3%) (2.2%) *** ***
Banking System Budget Support (% of GDP) (2.4%) 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Total Public Debt ($bn) 76.3 78.3 84.4 *** ***
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 71.8% 60.9% 50.3% *** ***
External Public Debt ($bn) 49.0 50.2 48.9 *** ***
Debt to IMF ($bn) 14.0 13.3 11.2 *** ***
Monetary & Banking Indicators *** ***
Broad Money (M2) Growth (y-o-y; %) 9.7% 5.5% 12.7% *** ***
Total Credits (% of GDP) 34.0% 30.1% 24.3% *** ***
F/X Loans (% of total) 43.9% 42.9% 37.1% *** ***
Total Deposits (% of GDP) 29.4% 25.6% 26.4% *** ***
F/X Deposits (% of total) 43.9% 40.6% 38.9% *** ***
Credit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 15.3% 18.7% 19.6% *** ***
Deposit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 9.1% 12.0% 13.0% *** ***
Forex *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 18.8 20.8 25.3 *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves (months of imports) 3.6 3.5 4.0 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 28.07 27.69 23.69 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 26.59 27.20 25.80 *** ***
Note: *nominal indicators for 2014 and following years exclude Crimea, y-o-y changes are calculated with 2013 numbers rebased to exclude Crimea; **IMF estimates for years through 2015, DC estimates for 2016 onwards. SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics; the general government balance includes the central and local budgets and Pension Fund, but excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy deficit and bank rehabilitation costs. Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, IMF, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

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