The Russian government banned exports of oil and some petrochemical products to Ukraine and required obtaining permission from the Economy Ministry to export coal, gasoline, diesel, coke and LPG to the country. Russia also expanded its ban on imports from Ukraine, adding to the list paper, textiles, wire, pipes, and some other machinery and industrial goods. The new restrictions take effect on June 1.

A Kyiv court ruled that the government’s nationalization of Privatbank in 2016 was illegal.

Russia on Thursday banned exports of oil and some petrochemical products to Ukraine and required obtaining government permission to export coal, gasoline, diesel, coke and LPG to the country. We previously identified coal and fuel supplies as Russia’s most apparent economic leverage over Ukraine. However, given that the new curbs will likely only limit supplies but not terminate them, and allow for some time to find alternative options, we currently assess the potential economic damage to Ukraine as small to moderate.

WSE-listed Ovostar Union, one of the largest shell egg producers in Ukraine, reported 2018 net sales of $125m (+27% y-o-y), EBITDA of $22m (-17%) and net income of $18m (-24%), for EBITDA and net margins of 17.6% (-9.3pp y-o-y) and 14.0% (-9.3pp y-o-y). Export sales accounted for 45% of the top line (-3pp y-o-y). The reported financials imply 4Q18 sales of $30m (-21% y-o-y), EBITDA of $5m (-67%) and net income of $4m (-76%), for EBITDA and net margins of 15.5% (-21.8pp y-o-y) and 11.9% (-26.9pp y-o-y).

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and one of the largest grain exporters, reported 3Q19FY (January-March 2019) operating results.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, reported solid 1Q19 operating results. Poultry production totaled 171 kt (+13% y-o-y on continued Vinnytsia Phase 2 expansion), with full-year production growth seen at c. 15% (+100 kt).

LSE-listed JKX Oil & Gas reported strong 1Q19 operating results. Total production rose 12% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y to 9.9 kboepd, fueled by Ukrainian assets (+35% q-o-q and +47% y-o-y to 5 kboepd), while Russian production fell 4% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y. Gas production in Ukraine jumped 38% q-o-q and 57% y-o-y to 64 million cubic meters, but the realized gas price fell 22% q-o-q and 4% y-o-y to $269/tcm. Ukrainian oil and gas extraction surged 24% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y to 837 boepd, its realized price sliding 28% q-o-q and 18% y-o-y to $59/bbl.

State-owned Turboatom (TATM), the largest power machinery producer in Ukraine, held an AGM yesterday, approving a 50% dividend payout. The decision implies dividends in absolute terms of UAH 382m (vs. UAH 533m in 2018, but that was a 75% payout) and DPS of UAH 0.90 ($0.034).

According to an Apr. 9-14 poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), over 48% of respondents would support comedy actor Volodymyr Zelensky and 17% would vote for President Petro Poroshenko in a runoff presidential election, with 18% being undecided and the remaining 15% either refusing to answer or being unwilling to vote. Among decided voters, Zelensky scored over 72%, well above Poroshenko’s 25%.

The Finance Ministry sold UAH 8.5bn of UAH-denominated bonds at an auction yesterday, slightly up from UAH 8.2bn last week and the fourth largest weekly volume YTD. The Ministry left all placement yields virtually unchanged w-o-w, filling all bids and thus placing UAH 4.4bn of 3-month paper at 19.5% p.a., UAH 3.0bn of 2-year bonds at 18.0% p.a., and UAH 0.7bn of 1-year bonds at 18.5% p.a. along with small volumes of 3-year and 6-month paper.

The arbitration tribunal under the United Nations Commission for International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) upheld Ukrnafta’s lawsuit against the Russian Federation, ordering Russia to pay the company $44.5m for expropriating the company’s 16 fueling stations and administrative buildings in Crimea in 2014. Ukrnafta had filed its lawsuit in 2015 pursuant to the Ukrainian-Russian bilateral investment treaty. The court also awarded Ukrnafta $3.5m in arbitration costs and interest accruing since Apr. 22, 2014, the latter having since risen to $5.5m.

Electricity consumption in Ukraine (net of exports, technical needs, losses and power used by pumped storage hydro plants) fell by 5% y-o-y to 10.8 TWh in March (+2% m-o-m), bringing 1Q19 consumption down 1% y-o-y to 33.2 TWh. Electricity production was down 7% y-o-y and up 2% m-o-m at 14.1 TWh last month, bringing 1Q19 production down 2% to 43.7 TWh.

Ukraine is negotiating with the World Bank a new guarantee to raise additional sovereign debt this year, Finance Minister Oksana Markarova said yesterday. She did not disclose the size of the potential new guarantee added the current IMF program was “going well”.

Agricultural production in Ukraine rose 3.4% y-o-y in 1Q19, driven by the livestock subsector. Domestic agricultural production statistics exclude the plant growing subsector in January-May each year, outside of the harvesting season.

WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reported that Albacon Ventures Limited, fully owned by CEO Viktor Ivanchyk, acquired 16,513 Astarta shares between Apr. 9-11, bringing Albacon’s total shareholding to 9,080,483 or 36.32% of total shares outstanding.

Ukrainian equities had a mixed week, with foreign-listed stocks higher (KP-Dragon +1.1%) and locally traded names weaker (PFTS -5.1% in UAH and -5.3% in USD). Among foreign-listed names, growth was broad-based, with strong grains in Ferrexpo (+6.5% w-o-w), Kernel (+2.5%) and second-tier names (Regal Petroleum +6.1%, Milkiland +5.1%, Ovostar +2.9%). A few names were down, particularly Astarta, on further negative reaction to its weak 2018 results (-7.5%), as well as MHP (-1.9%). Astarta reported 2018 net sales of $440m (-15% y-o-y), EBITDA of $62m (-53%) and net loss of $25m (vs. net income of $66m in 2017).