Key highlights: ·    The battlefield situation remains broadly unchanged, marked by continuing slow but steady Russian gains in different front-line sectors. In Donetsk region, Russian forces are close to capturing Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad. ·    Against the backdrop of the latest US peace push, Russia’s ongoing advances may motivate it to continue delaying substantive talks. ·    The US reports new military sales to Ukraine, while the Ukrainian military confirms the use of US ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia.

US, Ukrainian and European delegations met in Geneva yesterday to discuss Ukrainian and European proposals to the US peace plan disclosed last week. Following the meetings, the US and Ukraine said in a joint statement their “highly productive” talks produced “meaningful progress toward aligning positions and identifying clear next steps,” resulting in an updated draft peace framework. The sides “reaffirmed that any future agreement must fully uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and deliver a sustainable and just peace,” the White House said.

WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reported 9M25 net sales of $382m (-20% y-o-y), a gain from change in fair value of biological assets (IAS 41) of $54m (-16%), EBITDA of $114m (-21%), and net income of $49m (-41%). End-9M25 net debt stood at $227m, yielding a Net Debt/LTM EBITDA ratio of 1.59x vs. 1.05x at end-1H25 and 0.67x at end-2024.

Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit provisionally totaled $3.9bn in October, narrowing from the all-time high of $4.4bn in September, as exports jumped 24% m-o-m to $3.7bn (still -4.2% y-o-y) while imports were flat at $7.6bn (+23% y-o-y).

President Volodymyr Zelensky met yesterday with visiting US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and “officially received from the American side a draft plan which, in the American side’s assessment, could reinvigorate diplomacy,” the Ukrainian presidential office said. The Ukrainian readout said the sides agreed to “work through the plan’s provisions.” Zelensky also said he expected to discuss the document with US President Donald Trump in the coming days.

Ukraine’s iron ore exports stood at 26.6 Mt in 10M25 (-4.4% y-o-y), implying that October’s volume inched down 1.8% m-o-m to 2.4 Mt (-4.7% y-o-y). In value terms, iron ore exports totaled $2.0bn in 10M25 (-14% y-o-y), suggesting an 8.4% m-o-m increase in October to $194m (+17% y-o-y). The average realized export price for iron ore recovered by 10% m-o-m to $80/t and stood at $76/t in 10M25 (-10% y-o-y).

Ukrainian parliament voted to dismiss the ministers of justice and energy after they were implicated in an energy-sector corruption probe conducted by the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) and which also involved a former business partner of President Volodymyr Zelensky. More than two-thirds of lawmakers supported motions to dismiss Justice Minister Herman Haluschenko, who had served as energy minister from 2021-2025, and his successor Svitlana Hrynchuk.

The EBRD is working on a financial package to support gas imports by Naftogaz during the coming winter, Bank President Odile Renaud-Basso announced today. The package would total EUR 1bn, with EUR 0.5bn to be provided by the EBRD as a loan by year-end and another EUR 0.5bn expected to be arranged by other donors to follow early next year.

On the night of November 18-19, Russia launched another massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure in western and eastern regions. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the assault involved 476 drones and 48 cruise and ballistic missiles, of which 442 drones and 41 missiles were intercepted.

Daily crude steel production in Ukraine averaged 20.9 kt in October (+2.8% m-o-m), with monthly output increasing 6.2% m-o-m to 649 kt (+7.5% y-o-y) and bringing 10M25 production to 6.2 Mt (-4.9% y-o-y). Finished and semi-finished steel output totaled 534 kt in October, down 9.1% m-o-m and up 20.8% y-o-y, with 10M25 production at 5.4 Mt (+2.1% y-o-y). Hot metal production stood at 692 kt last month, up 1.3% m-o-m and 11% y-o-y, and 6.5 Mt in 10M25 (+8.4% y-o-y).

The stock of gross hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose 1.6% m-o-m to UAH 1,014 bn in October, after a 0.8% increase in September, bringing YTD growth to 22% vs. 15% in 10M24. FX-denominated loans increased 4.0% m-o-m to $6.9bn, after a 3.2% rise in September, pushing YTD growth to 10.1% after a 6.5% drop in 10M24.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, on a visit to France yesterday, signed a declaration of intent with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on acquiring French defense equipment. According to the Ukrainian presidency, the deal will enable Ukraine to acquire 100 Rafale F4 aircraft by 2035 along with eight SAMP/T air‑defense systems, air‑defense radars, air-to-air missiles, and aerial bombs. Ukraine and France also agreed to co-produce interceptor drones and jointly develop technologies and components for Ukrainian unmanned systems, with relevant projects to begin this year.

Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) has signed a contract to procure 55 dual-voltage electric locomotives from French rail transport manufacturer Alstom for around EUR 473m (c. $549m). The project will be financed with a World Bank grant (EUR 173m) and concessional loan financing from the EBRD (EUR 300m). According to RAILUA CEO Oleksandr Pertsovsky, the EBRD loan will amortize over 18 year, starting four years post-disbursement. The company will employ new locomotives for cargo transportation and thus plans to repay the loan using cargo segment profits. Alstom will start deliveries in 1Q27, with shipments to continue through 2029.

Ukraine exported 3.1 Mt of grains and oilseeds in October, the fourth month of the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July-June), up 12% m-o-m but down 40% y‑o‑y. Grain exports totaled 2.7 Mt, (+8.8% m-o-m, -33% y-o-y), while oilseed exports jumped by 39% m-o-m to 0.5 Mt (-62% y-o-y).

Key highlights: ·    Russian forces made new sizable tactical gains in Dnipropetrovsk and neighboring Zaporizhya region. ·    Containing the rapidly expanding Russian salient in eastern Zaporizhya region around Huliaipole has arguably become the most urgent challenge for the Ukrainian defense, overshadowing the continuing Russian offensive at Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. ·    Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure; Russia conducted another mass attack on Kyiv, continuing to target energy assets.

WSE-listed Ukrainian agricultural producer IMC reported 9M25 sales of $119m (-16% y-o-y), a gain from change in fair value of biological assets (IAS 41) of $76m (+22%), EBITDA of $88m (+24%), and net income of $68m (+43%). End-9M25 financial debt stood at $21m (-50% y-o-y). With cash of $28m (+1.1% y-o-y), the company was net cash positive at $7m as of end-9M25 (before $122m of lease liabilities under IFRS 16).