President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree appointing Olha Stefanishyna, former deputy PM for European integration, as Ukraine’s new ambassador to the US, replacing Oksana Markarova, who has served in this capacity for more than four years. Zelensky said the key task in Ukraine’s relations with Washington was to implement agreements on “weapons for Ukraine” and “modern drones for the United States.” Separately, Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak and National Security and Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov later this week to continue discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine and a possible meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 26bn ($635m) of hryvnia-denominated bonds and $390m of FX paper at primary auctions in August, for over $1bn in total. With UAH 12bn ($275m) of UAH and $280m of FX bonds redeemed this month ($555m in total), MinFin raised $470m in net proceeds, down from $589m in July and bringing the 8M25 net placement volume to $397m. The combined rollover rate stood at 185% in August (vs. 154% in July) and 105% YTD.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) Board approved a EUR 500m support package to strengthen Ukraine’s energy security and support affordable housing. As part of the package, the EIB will extend a loan to Naftogaz to finance urgent gas imports ahead of winter, following recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure. The loan will be backed by a European Commission guarantee under the EU Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF). Additionally, the Norwegian government approved a $98m grant to Naftogaz to support gas imports. Meanwhile, Russia on Aug. 27 attacked gas infrastructure in Poltava region and power infrastructure in Sumy and four other regions with strike drones. The extent of damage is being assessed.

The stock of hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose 2.6% m-o-m to UAH 963bn in gross terms in July, following a 2.2% increase in June, bringing the YTD growth rate to 16%, up from 11% in 7M24. F/X-denominated loans were broadly flat, inching down 0.1% m-o-m to $6.3bn, compared with a 1.3% rise in June, and being unchanged YTD.

Russian forces attacked DTEK Energy’s coal mine in Donetsk region, killing one worker and injuring three others. The strike damaged equipment and buildings and disrupted power supply.

According to a Jul. 22-27 nationwide survey conducted by Rating Group, a private Ukrainian pollster, on behalf of the US-based International Republican Institute, President Volodymyr Zelensky would win the first round of presidential elections with 31% of the vote, followed by former army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, currently Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, on 25%. Other potential contenders would finish far behind, including former president Petro Poroshenko on 6% and head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov on 5%.

According to NBU data, Ukrainian banks reported combined net profit of UAH 38bn ($0.9bn) in 2Q25, down 4.6% q-o-q and 2.4% y-o-y. Their aggregate capital adequacy ratio (CAR; under NBU methodology) totaled 15.5% as of end-2Q25, down 0.7pp q-o-q and 3.5pp y-o-y.

According to preliminary NBU data, state-owned Ukreximbank booked net profit of $43m (UAH 1.7bn) in 2Q25, down from $59m (UAH 2.5bn) in 1Q25, bringing 1H25 net income to $102m (UAH 4.2bn), down 9.1% y-o-y.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday that there “could be very big consequences” for Russia and he would “step in very strongly” if there is no progress toward peace in the next two weeks. Trump also reaffirmed the US commitment to back security guarantees for Ukraine and reiterated his earlier proposal for the Ukrainian and Russian leaders to meet before arranging a trilateral summit with his participation.

Key highlights: Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in several sectors but Russian advances continued elsewhere, primarily throughout Donetsk region. Norway and Germany announced almost $20bn in 2026 assistance to Ukraine, mostly military, along with ongoing donations. Ukraine conducted news strikes against Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service resumed publication of monthly agricultural production data, which had been suspended since the start of the war, reporting an 18.5% y-o-y decline in output in 7M25. This included a 25.5% y-o-y drop in the plant-growing segment and a 4.7% decline in animal farming.

This is a shortened version of The Dragon Daily, with trading comments and market data. Full coverage will resume on Tuesday, August 26.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday the latest US-European plan for security guarantees to Ukraine was a “road to nowhere” if agreed without Russian participation. He once again referred to a draft Ukrainian-Russian agreement discussed in Istanbul in the early stage of the war in 2022 as a possible model for such guarantees. A day earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Russia remained firmly opposed to any guarantees for Ukraine that would involve deploying NATO members’ military contingents in the country.

The Verkhovna Rada approved amendments to the 2025 budget law yesterday, redistributing UAH 37bn in non-military spending and raising planned revenues by reallocating UAH 8bn in bank profit tax receipts from Kyiv’s municipal budget to the state budget. The latter amount is expected to be directed as state support to Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA).

Another US diplomatic push to end the war in Ukraine has gained momentum in recent weeks, resulting, on Aug. 15, in the first face-to-face meeting between the US and Russian presidents since the start of the war. While there have been no major tangible results as yet and we are still to see indications that Russia is willing to engage in good-faith negotiations, the diplomatic process is ongoing and may produce direct talks between the Ukrainian and Russian leaders in the coming weeks. Against this backdrop, we reassess what upside potential could be unlocked in Ukrainian sovereign and corporate bonds in case a durable and sustainable settlement is negotiated, and compare it to downside risks stemming from a potential break-up of negotiations and consequent reversal of market sentiment toward an extended-war scenario and another sovereign restructuring.

This is a shortened version of The Dragon Daily, with trading comments and market data. Full coverage will resume on Tuesday, August 26.