President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on Friday a decree dismissing his long-time chief of staff Andriy Yermak. The announcement came after the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) searched Yermak’s Kyiv apartment earlier the same day. Media linked the searches to NABU’s ongoing investigation into alleged large-scale corruption at a state energy company in which the anticorruption body earlier implicated two current and one former government ministers as well as Zelensky’s former business ally. Although NABU did not bring charges against Yermak following the searches, he tendered his resignation to Zelensky.

Key highlights: ·    Russian forces intensified ground and aerial assaults last week as the US stepped up its peace efforts. ·    The Ukrainian military reported an average of 222 Russian attacks per day, a new high. Despite that, Russian territorial gains remained modest at around 80 km2, limited to several sectors in Zaporizhya and Donetsk regions, while Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in Dnipropetrovsk region.  ·    Ukraine and Russia continue attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, with Ukraine expanding its asymmetric actions to target Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, reported 1Q26FY financials (calendar 3Q25) with sales of $826m, -19% q-o-q and +3.5% y-o-y, EBITDA of $144m, +109% q-o-q and -15% y-o-y, and net income of $95m, up 4.75x q-o-q and -21% y-o-y.

The National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) announced this morning it was conducting searches on the premises of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak. “The investigative actions are authorized and are being carried out within the framework of an investigation,” NABU said in a statement. Yermak shortly confirmed that NABU and the Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office were conducting “procedural actions” at his Kyiv apartment, adding that the law enforcement bodies faced no obstacles and had his full cooperation.

The State Statistic Service (SSS) reported real retail turnover growth of 10.1% y-o-y in October, up from 7.1% in September, bringing the 10M25 growth tally to 6.5% vs. 6.0% in 9M25 and 13.2% in 10M24. On a related note, the domestic Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a survey-based gauge calculated by market research firm Info Sapiens, rose to 78 in October from 75 in September, while the propensity to consume sub-index increased to 71 from 68 in September.

Ukrainian banks posted combined net income of UAH 41bn ($1.0bn) in 3Q25, up 8.5% q-o-q and 8.0% y-o-y, bringing 9M25 net profit to UAH 119bn ($2.9bn), according to NBU data. The aggregate capital adequacy ratio (CAR; NBU methodology) stood at 15.43% as of end-3Q25, down 0.09pp q-o-q and 0.72pp y-o-y.

Ukrainian authorities and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on a new $8.1bn 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, following an IMF mission visit on Nov. 17-21. According to an IMF statement, the new program “could be brought to the IMF’s Executive Board approval upon completion of the prior actions and subject to adequate financing assurances from donors.” The Fund estimated Ukraine’s total financing gap in 2026-29 at $136.5bn in the baseline scenario, including $63bn of residual financing gap (not covered by existing commitments) in 2026-27. The IMF said the program would be “recalibrated as needed at each review depending on progress towards resolution of the war.” Among policy measures, the IMF stressed that enacting the 2026 budget law consistent with the program framework was “imperative”, highlighting the need to avoid inefficient expenditures and tax exemptions. Ukraine is expected to continue with domestic revenue mobilization efforts, in particular through broadening the tax base. Specific measures include taxing income earned via digital platforms, closing customs loopholes for consumer imports, and removing exemptions for VAT registration. With respect to monetary and exchange rate policy, the IMF said the NBU was committed to reducing inflation to the 5% target and allowing greater currency flexibility “to adjust to underlying fundamentals and increasing the exchange rate’s role as a shock absorber.” The IMF press release also said that Ukrainian authorities undertook to continue implementing a public debt restructuring strategy to restore debt sustainability. Finally, the reform component of the new program will be focused on tackling corruption, improving governance and continuing SOE reforms, with the key goals being to preserve the independence of anticorruption institutions, reform the tax and customs administrations, and improve SOEs’ nomination procedures, financial planning, reporting, and auditing.

According to preliminary NBU data, state-owned Ukreximbank booked net profit of $66m (UAH 2.7bn) in 3Q25, up 55% q-o-q, bringing 9M25 net income to $167m (UAH 7.0bn), up 13% y-o-y.

US President Donald Trump said his envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week for another meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin while US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will continue talks with Ukrainian officials — “in the hopes of finalizing” the US peace plan. Trump said the original 28-point peace proposal “drafted by the United States” had been revised to include input from Ukraine and Russia, and “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement.” The US leader said he looked forward to meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin soon, “but only when the deal to end this war is final, or in its final stages.”

Agricultural production in Ukraine fell 12.4% y-o-y in 10M25, slowing the rate of decline from -14.0% in 9M25.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 25bn ($0.6bn) of hryvnia-denominated bonds and $327m of FX paper at primary auctions in November. With UAH 17bn ($0.4bn) of UAH and $362m of FX bonds redeemed this month ($0.8bn in total), net proceeds reached $158m, up from a $6m net redemption in October and bringing the YTD net placement volume to $884m. The combined rollover rate stood at 121% in November (vs. 100% in October) and 108% YTD.

According to an Oct. 10-16 nationwide survey conducted by SOCIS, a private Ukrainian pollster, President Volodymyr Zelensky would finish virtually tied with former army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny in a potential first round of presidential elections, winning 22.3% of the vote vs. 21.3% for Zaluzhny (and 30.1% to 28.9% among decided voters). Almost the same share of respondents, 21.1%, were undecided. However, Zaluzhny, currently Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, would confidently beat the incumbent president in a runoff with 66% to 34%, SOCIS said. Other potential first-round presidential contenders would finish far behind, including former president Petro Poroshenko on 5.3% and head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov on 3.7%. The poll also showed 51% of respondents being of the view that Zelensky should not seek a second presidential term, while 36% said it’s not yet time to install a new president.

State power transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported 1H25 revenue of $1.8bn (+1.3% h-o-h, +2.7% y-o-y), with net losses shrinking to $12m from $698m in 2H24 and $248m in 1H24. End-June cash dropped 1.3% h-o-h to $364m (still +60% y-o-y), mostly held in Ukraine. Total debt increased 3.9% h-o-h to $2.5bn (+11% y-o-y), implying a Debt/EBITDA of 4.2x, down from 5.5x in 1H24 and 4.7x as of end of 2024.

Key highlights: ·    The battlefield situation remains broadly unchanged, marked by continuing slow but steady Russian gains in different front-line sectors. In Donetsk region, Russian forces are close to capturing Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad. ·    Against the backdrop of the latest US peace push, Russia’s ongoing advances may motivate it to continue delaying substantive talks. ·    The US reports new military sales to Ukraine, while the Ukrainian military confirms the use of US ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia.

US, Ukrainian and European delegations met in Geneva yesterday to discuss Ukrainian and European proposals to the US peace plan disclosed last week. Following the meetings, the US and Ukraine said in a joint statement their “highly productive” talks produced “meaningful progress toward aligning positions and identifying clear next steps,” resulting in an updated draft peace framework. The sides “reaffirmed that any future agreement must fully uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and deliver a sustainable and just peace,” the White House said.

WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reported 9M25 net sales of $382m (-20% y-o-y), a gain from change in fair value of biological assets (IAS 41) of $54m (-16%), EBITDA of $114m (-21%), and net income of $49m (-41%). End-9M25 net debt stood at $227m, yielding a Net Debt/LTM EBITDA ratio of 1.59x vs. 1.05x at end-1H25 and 0.67x at end-2024.