Key highlights: ·    Heavy fighting continues in and around Pokrovsk, with Russian forces reportedly present throughout the city but unable to claim full control. ·    The Ukrainian-held pocket in Myrnohrad next to Pokrovsk remains at risk of being encircled. ·    Overall Russian gains remain modest, as before, but continued Russian advances in Dnipropetrovsk region is another evolving threat.

On the night of Nov. 7-8, Russia launched another massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, targeting electricity and gas production infrastructure. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the assault involved 458 drones, 32 ballistic missiles (including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles), and 13 cruise missiles. The Ukrainian air defense intercepted 405 drones and 9 missiles. Two power plants owned by the state-run Centrenergo were hit and forced to suspend electricity generation, while DTEK also reported an attack on one of its thermal power facilities. The strikes also forced Ukraine’s nuclear power plants to reduce output and triggered emergency power rationing across most regions. Naftogaz reported damage to its gas and heating assets. Additionally, Ferrexpo reported that power supplies to its operations have been affected, leading to interruptions in production and exports.

NBU gross international reserves rose 6.4% m-o-m ($3.0bn) to $49.5bn in October (+13.1% YTD), equivalent to 5.1 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official UAH:USD rate weakened 1.6% m-o-m to 42.0, remaining flat YTD, while the UAH:EUR rate was unchanged m-o-m at 48.5 (-9.5% YTD).

The Cabinet of Ministers has submitted a revised 2026 state budget bill to parliament, increasing the revenue target by UAH 28bn to UAH 2,918bn and spending by UAH 34bn to UAH 4,820bn (the increases are relative to levels endorsed by parliament at first reading). The deficit target thus increased only marginally, by UAH 5bn to UAH 1,940bn, or 18.5% of GDP. The government plans to finance next year’s deficit solely with external borrowings, seen at $47bn in gross terms ($44bn net), while projecting $2.3bn in net redemptions on domestic debt.

The Ukrainian government said in a cleansing statement published yesterday that the second round of talks with an ad-hoc committee of GDP warrant holders was terminated without reaching agreement. According to a separate statement from the Ukrainian Finance Ministry’s published on its website, there was no convergence in the sides’ positions during the restricted discussions held between Oct. 16 and Nov. 5, with the committee comprising holders of c. 35% of GDP warrants.

Vodafone Ukraine (VFU), the country’s second-largest mobile operator, reported 9M25 revenues of $493m (+8.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of $256m (+6.4%), and net income of $70m (-5.1%). The EBITDA margin declined 1.0pp y-o-y to 51.9%. The results imply 3Q25 EBITDA of $83m (-10% q-o-q, after a 15% rebound in 2Q25), with the EBITDA margin down 5.6pp q-o-q to 49.7%. Quarterly CAPEX fell 6.4% q-o-q to $44m (+38% y-o-y). ARPU reached UAH 138 ($3.3), up 1.3% q-o-q and 18% y-o-y in UAH terms, while the subscriber base was stable at 15.4 million (-3.1% y-o-y).

The National Bank’s survey-based index of business activity, a PMI-type gauge, stood at 50.3 on a 0-100 scale in October, flat m-o-m and up 0.8pt y-o-y.

Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) Supervisory Board member Serhiy Leschenko said that the company’s newly announced financial recovery package will include three key components: (i) UAH 16bn in direct budget support, (ii) UAH 10bn in savings from cost-cutting measures and scrap metal sales, and (iii) a two-stage freight tariff indexation, up 27.5% from Jan. 1, 2026, and another 11% from Jul. 1, 2026 — expected to yield UAH 22.5bn in additional revenue next year. Leschenko justified the need for these measures by noting that the company’s net loss reached UAH 7.2bn in 9M25 (vs. UAH -7.4bn in 1H25).

News: Baseload day-ahead (DAHD) electricity prices in Ukraine averaged UAH 5,988 (EUR 124)/MWh in October, up 43% m-o-m and 14% y-o-y. November baseload supply contracts at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange are currently priced at UAH 5,209 (EUR 108)/MWh, up 25% m-o-m and 2.7% y-o-y.

A new IMF program for Ukraine could be approved in January 2026, following a mission visit in November, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said yesterday. He noted that the potential delay from December stems from the Fund’s internal procedures.

The European Commission issued a broadly positive evaluation of Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership in its annual enlargement report published yesterday. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Ukraine was among the four candidate countries alongside Montenegro, Albania and Moldova which made the most progress in accession negotiations over the past year. However, she cautioned Ukrainian authorities against backsliding on key reforms, especially in the anticorruption area.

Ukraine’s headline current account (CA) deficit widened to $3.2bn in September from $2.5bn in August, bringing the 9M25 gap to $25bn vs. $12bn in 9M24. The financial and capital account (FA) surplus, including IMF funds, narrowed to $3.4bn from $5.2bn in August, lifting the 9M25 surplus to $26bn vs. $9.7bn a year earlier. The overall balance of payments (BoP) surplus narrowed to $0.2bn from $2.8bn in August, standing at $1.2bn in 9M25 compared with a $2.3bn deficit in 9M24.

According to the minutes of the latest meeting of the NBU’s 10-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which preceded the central bank’s Oct. 23 rate decision, six members supported keeping the key rate unchanged at 15.5%, while four favored a 50bp cut. The more hawkish majority cited heightened pro-inflationary risks stemming from energy shortages, a wider fiscal deficit, and elevated inflation expectations. They also pointed to the deterioration in the attractiveness of UAH assets, reflected in slowing inflows of term deposits to banks and rising household FX demand.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said the government is ready to provide UAH 16bn of state support to rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) in 2026, on top of UAH 13bn allocated in 2025, while the company would need to come up with another UAH 10bn, including via cost cuts. The government also considers increasing the company’s freight tariffs and “will make sure that business does not suffer”.

Ukraine’s direct and guaranteed public debt stood at $194bn as of end-September, up 0.8% m-o-m and 17% YTD.

Key highlights: ·    Russian forces have made significant gains inside Pokrovsk, with some OSINT sources claiming most of the city is under Russian control. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces achieved important advances north of Pokrovsk, continuing to thwart Russian attempts to encircle the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. ·    Despite the latest success in Pokrovsk, overall Russian gains remain modest, totaling ~75 km2 last week and ~240-270 km2 on the entire front in October, with over 6,000 km2 (24%) in Donetsk region (the main axis of the Russian offensive) remaining under Ukrainian control. ·    Ukraine and Russia continued attacking each other’s energy infrastructure; Zelensky confirmed the delivery of additional PATRIOT air defense systems from Germany.