Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimated real GDP growth at 0.8% y-o-y in June (±0.5pp), broadly in line with May’s 0.9% (revised down from 1.2%). The Ministry’s estimate for 1H25 growth is +0.8% y-o-y, close to the +0.9% in 1Q25 reported by the statistical office. Growth was supported by resilient domestic demand and stable power supplies, which fueled energy production, processed industry, and retail turnover, offsetting weaker agricultural output due to a delayed start to the harvest, the Ministry said.

NBU gross foreign reserves fell 4.5% m-o-m ($2.0bn) to $43.0bn in July (-1.7% YTD), equivalent to 4.7 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official exchange rate was flat m-o-m at UAH 41.8:USD, up 0.7% YTD but down 1.8% y-o-y.

The State Statistic Service (SSS) reported real retail turnover growth of 7.0% y-o-y in May, up from 6.6% in April, bringing the 5M25 tally to +5.9%, following 5.5% in 4M25.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday he saw “a very good prospect” for arranging a meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia “very soon.” According to the New York Times, Trump held a phone call with European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky shortly after his envoy Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, telling them that he may meet with Putin as early as next week, followed by a trilateral meeting including himself, Zelensky, and Putin.

According to a Jul. 24-Aug. 4 poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, a private Ukrainian pollster, 58% of respondents said they trusted President Volodymyr Zelensky, down from this year’s high of 74% in May but up from last year’s low of 52% in December. The share of those distrusting the president stood at 35%, below the 22% low in May and close to 2024 levels.

The NBU has further eased its FX controls, including a key revision allowing the repatriation of dividends on net income earned after Jan. 1, 2023 (previously Jan. 1, 2024), keeping the repatriation cap at the equivalent of EUR 1m per company per month. Dividend repatriation is now also eligible under the so-called investment limit — covering amounts invested into a company’s share capital from abroad after May 12, 2025.

Metinvest reported 2Q25 iron ore production of 3.9 Mt, up 2.5% q-o-q but down 3.0% y-o-y, bringing 1H25 output to 7.7 Mt (+13% h-o-h, -13% y-o-y). Crude steel production fell 14% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y to 420 kt in 2Q25, with 1H25 output down 14% h-o-h and 13% y-o-y to 908 kt. Finished and semi-finished product volumes were down 1.8% q-o-q and 7.0% y-o-y in 2Q25 to 756 kt, but up 4.7% h-o-h and down 2.4% y-o-y in 1H25.

Ferrexpo reported 1H25 net sales of $453m, down 17% y-o-y but up 18% h-o-h. EBITDA came in at just $4m (-95% y-o-y), still up from -$10m in 2H24. The company posted a net loss of $196m vs. net income of $55m in 1H24 and a $106m loss in 2H24.

The Russian leadership is considering options to avert US President Donald Trump’s latest sanction threat, including by offering to halt drone and missile attacks on Ukraine on condition that Ukraine stops its long-range strikes against Russia, Bloomberg reported yesterday. The news agency’s sources added that Russia will still not accept a full ceasefire at this stage in view of its ongoing battlefield advances. The air truce proposal may be discussed during Trump envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow today. Separately, Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Russia, despite its ongoing heavy battlefield losses — including over 33,000 in July, was increasing its grouping in Ukraine by 9,000 personnel per month. In other news, President Volodymyr Zelensky held a phone call with Trump yesterday, with a Ukrainian readout of the call saying the two leaders discussed sanctions against Russia and a potential agreement on drone production. Concurrently, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported a “very meaningful conversation” with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on bilateral defense and investment cooperation, including the aforementioned deal on selling Ukrainian drones to the US. The sides also discussed expanding the mandate of the recently launched US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund to allow it to invest in defense. Lastly, the newly established US-NATO program to supply US weapons to Ukraine, the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), received $1bn in commitments in the last two days, while the US State Department approved an additional $0.2bn in military sales to Ukraine yesterday.

Ukraine harvested 17.2 Mt of grain and oilseeds as of Aug. 1, down 40% y-o-y. The harvested area totaled 5.2 Mha — primarily under winter wheat, barley and rapeseed — down 29% y-o-y and representing 26% of the total sown area (vs. 37% a year ago). Wheat was harvested from 59% of total plantings, with production reaching 11.4 Mt and yields averaging 3.7 t/ha (-15% y-o-y). The barley harvest was 73% complete, totaling 3.6 Mt at 3.5 t/ha (-5% y-o-y). Farmers also harvested 1.8 Mt of rapeseed from 65% of the planted area, for a yield of 2.3 t/ha (-17% y-o-y).

The NBU has further eased its FX controls, including a key revision allowing the repatriation of dividends on net income earned after Jan. 1, 2023 (previously Jan. 1, 2024), capped at the equivalent of EUR 1m per company per month. Dividend repatriation is now also eligible under the so-called investment limit — covering amounts invested into a company’s share capital from abroad after May 12, 2025.

Ukraine exported 2.1 Mt of grain and oilseeds in July, the first month of the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July-June), down 16% m-o-m and 49% y‑o‑y. Grain exports totaled 1.6 Mt, down 27% m-o-m and 56% y-o-y, while oilseed exports stood at 0.5 Mt (+66% m-o-m, +2% y-o-y).

In this presentation, we provide an update on the battlefield situation in Ukraine, summarize our recently published macro outlook for 2025 and 2026, and discuss our views on the sovereign, quasi-sovereign and corporate Eurobonds.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, announced the closing of the acquisition of a 92% stake in UVESA, one of Spain’s leading poultry producers, at a fixed price of EUR 225 per share, plus a contingent consideration of up to EUR 21.43 per share.

The Ukrainian National Bank’s survey-based index of business activity — a PMI-type gauge — stood at 48.3 on a 0-100 scale in July, down 1.7pt m-o-m but up 3.8pt y-o-y.

Metinvest announced it has received a non-binding offer for the potential sale of United Coal Company (UCC), its US-based subsidiary. The offer is currently under review by the company’s management. Metinvest disclosed that UCC generated negative EBITDA of $42m in 2024, with further deterioration expected in 2025 due to persistent adverse geological conditions and continued market headwinds.