Ukraine ranked 54th globally in terms of GDP and 38th in terms of purchasing power parity GDP in 2012. The country’s nominal GDP stood at $176bn last year, translating into $3,865 per capita. Real GDP growth slowed to 0.2% last year as weak external demand took a toll on the export-oriented economy. We forecast economic growth will remain close to zero in 2013 and recover to +1.5% in 2014.
| Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2034 | 2035 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issue Volume ($m) | 1383.692 | 1355.231 | 1339.057 | 1328.887 | 825.0 | 1307.161 | 1600.0 | 1750.0 | 1250.0 | 3000.0 | 2600.0 | 3239.32 |
| Coupon Rate (% p.a.) | 7.75% | 7.75% | 7.75% | 7.75% | 6.875% | 7.75% | 9.75% | 6.876% | 4.375% | 7.375% | 7.253% | _% |
| Coupon Frequency | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Maturity date | 9/1/2024 | 9/1/2025 | 9/1/2026 | 9/1/2027 | 11/9/2028 | 9/1/2029 | 11/1/2030 | 5/21/2031 | 1/27/2032 | 9/25/2034 | 3/15/2035 | 8/1/2041 |
| Ratings: Moody's/S&P/Fitch | WR/CCC+/NR | Caa3u/CCC+/CC | Caa3u/CCC+/CC | Caa3u/CCC+/CC | Caa3/_/CC | Caa3u/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/CC | _/CCC+/_ |
| Market Price* | 24.5 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 17.5 | 21.5 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 18.5 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 32.5 |
| Market YTM* | 130.78% | 81.85% | 63.11% | 53.03% | 47.97% | 42.19% | 41.85% | 35.89% | 32.44% | 33.48% | 32.93% | % |
| Spread over UST* | 12652.27 | 7789.21 | 5932.46 | 4934.94 | 4433.21 | 3854.9 | 3821.69 | 3230.49 | 2768.53 | 2929.93 | ||
| Note: *Based on bid price. | ||||||||||||
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP ($bn) | 112.1 | 130.9 | 154.2 | 156.6 |
| GDP per Capita ($) | 2,644 | 3,106 | 3,679 | 3,755 |
| Total Public Debt ($bn) | 76.3 | 78.3 | 84.4 | 90.3 |
| Total Public Debt (% GDP) | 71.84% | 60.90% | 50.24% | 60.45% |
| Debt to IMF ($bn) | 14.0 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| Ext. Debt w/o IMF ($bn) | 35.0 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 40.9 |
| Ext. Debt w/o IMF (% exports) | 64.86% | 62.36% | 59.38% | 67.37% |
| Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) | 18.8 | 20.8 | 25.3 | 29.1 |
| UAH:$ (e-o-p) | 28.07 | 27.69 | 23.69 | 28.28 |
| UAH:$ (avg.) | 26.60 | 27.20 | 25.80 | 26.96 |