Ukraine ranked 54th globally in terms of GDP and 38th in terms of purchasing power parity GDP in 2012. The country’s nominal GDP stood at $176bn last year, translating into $3,865 per capita. Real GDP growth slowed to 0.2% last year as weak external demand took a toll on the export-oriented economy. We forecast economic growth will remain close to zero in 2013 and recover to +1.5% in 2014.
| Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2034 | 2035 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issue Volume ($m) | 1383.692 | 1355.231 | 750.0 | 1328.887 | 1000.0 | 1307.161 | 700.0 | 1750.0 | 1250.0 | 3000.0 | 2600.0 | 3239.32 |
| Coupon Rate (% p.a.) | 7.75% | 7.75% | 8.994% | 7.75% | 6.75% | 7.75% | 6.25% | 6.876% | 4.375% | 7.375% | 7.253% | 7.75% |
| Coupon Frequency | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Maturity date | 9/1/2024 | 9/1/2025 | 2/1/2026 | 9/1/2027 | 6/20/2028 | 9/1/2029 | 6/24/2030 | 5/21/2031 | 1/27/2032 | 9/25/2034 | 3/15/2035 | 8/1/2041 |
| Ratings: Fitch/Moody's/S&P | WR/CC/NR | WR/CC/NR | _/NR/CC | Cau/CC/CC | _/CC/CC | Cau/CC/CC | _/CC/_ | _/CC/CC | _/CC/CC | _/CC/CC | _/CC/CC | _/CC/_ |
| Market Price* | 36.0 | 35.5 | 36.0 | 32.0 | 28.25 | 31.0 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 25.25 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 54.5 |
| Market YTM* | 627.92% | 121.42% | 95.06% | 57.07% | 55.87% | 42.21% | 39.36% | 38.33% | 29.97% | 32.12% | 31.43% | % |
| Spread over UST* | 11611.39 | 8974.22 | 5224.51 | 4697.85 | 3747.9 | 3363 | 2532.14 | 2673.27 | ||||
| Note: *Based on bid price. | ||||||||||||
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP ($bn) | 154.2 | 156.6 | 199.9 | 191.2 |
| GDP per Capita ($) | 3,679 | 3,755 | 4,827 | 4,641 |
| Total Public Debt ($bn) | 84.4 | 90.3 | 97.9 | 109.7 |
| Total Public Debt (% GDP) | 50.24% | 60.45% | 48.99% | 59.68% |
| Debt to IMF ($bn) | 11.2 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Ext. Debt w/o IMF ($bn) | 37.7 | 40.9 | 42.7 | 50.6 |
| Ext. Debt w/o IMF (% exports) | 59.38% | 67.37% | 52.39% | 59.46% |
| Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) | 25.3 | 29.1 | 30.9 | 30.0 |
| UAH:$ (e-o-p) | 23.69 | 28.28 | 27.28 | 28.50 |
| UAH:$ (avg.) | 25.80 | 26.96 | 27.27 | 27.40 |