The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund (RIF), established earlier this year under a bilateral minerals deal, will receive $150m in seed capital, split evenly between the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which represents the US in the Fund, and Ukraine. According to Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev, the initial financing will be disbursed in tranches this and next year and directed into investment projects in Ukraine, with the first projects expected in critical minerals, energy, hydrocarbons and infrastructure.

The stock of gross hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose 2.7% m-o-m to UAH 989bn in August, after a 2.6% increase in July, bringing YTD growth to 19% vs. 12% in 8M24. FX-denominated loans increased 2.4% m-o-m to $6.4bn (vs. -0.1% in July), pushing YTD growth to 2.5% vs. -5.4% in 8M24. Hryvnia-denominated deposits edged up 0.4% m-o-m to UAH 1,927bn, reversing July’s 0.9% decline, with YTD growth at 2.4% (vs. 3.7% in 8M24). FX deposits rose 0.8% m-o-m to $20.8bn, bringing YTD growth to 3.9% (vs. 4.4% in 8M24).

The Cabinet of Ministers submitted to parliament the state budget bill for 2026, projecting a deficit of $41.5bn (18.4% of GDP). The macroeconomic forecast underpinning the draft assumes real GDP growth slowing to 2.4% y-o-y from 2.7% expected this year. Average annual consumer inflation is projected to decelerate to 10.4% y-o-y from 12.2% in 2025E, while the average UAH:USD exchange rate is expected to weaken 7.2% y-o-y to UAH 45.7:USD. As a result, the government sees 2026 nominal GDP at $226bn, up from $211bn this year.

The government expects state rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) to post mounting losses in 2025–28, reflecting weaker cargo volumes and persistently loss-making passenger operations. In 2025, losses are projected at c.UAH22bn, up from UAH 2.8bn in 2024, as cargo transportation profits plunge 96% y-o-y to UAH0.9bn while passenger segment losses widen to UAH 20.8bn (vs. UAH 18.1bn in 2024).

Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit provisionally totaled $3.6bn in August, narrowing sharply from July’s all-time high of $4.4bn, as imports fell 12% m-o-m to $6.7bn (still +11% y-o-y) while exports dropped 5.2% m-o-m to $3.1bn (-10% y-o-y).

Ukraine’s iron ore exports reached 21.7 Mt in 8M25 (-7.0% y-o-y), implying a drop in August of 16% m-o-m to 2.5 Mt (+0.7% y-o-y). In value terms, iron ore exports totaled $1.6bn in 8M25 (-20% y-o-y), suggesting a 9% m-o-m fall in August to $173m (-14% y-o-y).

Metinvest reported 1H25 results, classifying its US-based United Coal Company (UCC) as assets held for sale and restating 1H24 financials. The group posted 1H25 revenues of $3.6bn (-13% y-o-y), including $2.4bn from the metallurgical segment (-1.8% y-o-y) and $3.0bn from mining (+8.8% y-o-y). EBITDA fell 49% y-o-y to $339m, with metallurgical EBITDA of $213m (+22% y-o-y) and mining EBITDA of $169m (-69% y-o-y).

Key highlights: Russian territorial gains remained tiny for the third week running despite intensifying ground assaults throughout Donetsk region and into Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine hit a record number of military, industrial and infrastructure assets inside Russia in August, with last week’s attacks damaging the country’s top oil exporting terminal and major oil refinery. High-level diplomacy remains on hold, with Trump’s latest statements raising questions about whether Western countries can agree quick coordinated actions to impose additional costs on Russia.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, held a conference call after publishing its 1H25 results. The company guided 2025 EBITDA at $550-570m, broadly unchanged from $566m in 2024 (net of IFRS 16), and sees 2025 CAPEX before the UVESA acquisition at $280m (vs. $290m in 2024). MHP’s latest cash position after the UVESA deal stood at c.$300m, down from $328m at end-1H25; management reiterated its minimum liquidity buffer of $200m.

The NBU Board left the central bank’s key rate unchanged at 15.5% at its Sep. 11 meeting, keeping it flat since March after a cumulative 250bp hike over December 2024–March 2025. The decision was in line with the NBU’s current key rate guidance and underpinned by continuing disinflation. The Bank noted that headline inflation slowed to 13.2% y-o-y in August from its 15.9% May peak, faster than expected, while core CPI decelerated to 11.4% y-o-y, close to its projections. Inflation expectations remain stable, supported by the growing attractiveness of UAH-denominated assets and a stable FX market.

The IMF estimates Ukraine’s uncovered external funding gap for 2026-27 may be $10-20 bn higher than the government’s current projection of $37.5 bn, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. The discrepancy emerged during consultations between Ukrainian officials and the IMF staff mission, which took place 3–10 September in Kyiv. Both sides are expected to agree on a final figure next week before the IMF considers Ukraine’s request for a new program, after which they will reach out to Ukraine’s allies to secure the required financing.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, reported 2Q25 revenue of $856m (+9.9% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), EBITDA of $133m (+11% q-o-q, -13% y-o-y; incl. IFRS 16), and net income of $43m (+34% q-o-q, +48% y-o-y). Quarterly EBITDA before IFRS 16 stood at $125m (+13% q-o-q, -14% y-o-y). End-1H25 net debt before IFRS 16 stood at $1,243m, implying Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.30x (vs. 2.08x at end-2024). End-1H25 cash balances totaled $328m, down from $355m at end-2024, with c.47% of total held outside Ukraine.

DTEK Renewables has commissioned six battery energy storage systems (BESS) produced by US firm Fluence with a combined capacity of 200 MW/400 MWh (equivalent to two hours at peak output). Total project cost was EUR 125m.

The European Union said in a statement yesterday that the Sep. 10 violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones reinforced its resolve to support Ukraine and will lead to a significant ramp-up of sanctions against “Russia and its enablers.” In a series of other statements in the last two days, European allies and Ukraine announced new military aid commitments and joint defense projects: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in her State of the Union address yesterday, said the EU will frontload EUR 6bn in loans to Ukraine from ERA, a $50bn mechanism established in 2024 and backed by future profits from immobilized Russian assets, and enter into a “drone alliance” with the country. President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the EU to “find even more ways to use frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.” Von der Leyen also announced a longer-term Qualitative Military Edge program to invest in strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities, calling the latter “the first line of security guarantees.” EU defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius reported that 13 out of 19 EU member states that applied for loans under the EUR 150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defense funding program planned to use the money to support Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmygal said the EU planned to allocate EUR 6.6bn from the European Peace Facility to procure US weapons for Ukraine. He also announced EUR 300m in German funding for Ukrainian long-range drones and a JV with Denmark to manufacture long-range weapons. The UK government, as part of a recent industrial partnership agreement with Ukraine, announced domestic production of thousands of interceptor drones to be delivered to Ukraine in the next 12 months.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed utilizing cash balances associated with immobilized Russian frozen assets in Europe to provide a “reparation loan” for Ukraine that will be repaid once and if Russia pays war reparations to the country.

Russia conducted another mass aerial strike against Ukraine overnight, launching 415 drones and 43 cruise and ballistic missiles. The attack targeted Ukraine’s westernmost regions of Volyn and Lviv, along with 13 other regions, and a number of drones crossed into Polish airspace — at least eight, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The Polish Air Force shot down an unspecified number of drones, with one reportedly damaging a residential building in a village roughly 15 km from the border. Four Polish airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin Airport (150 km from the border), were temporarily closed during the attack.