President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday he had to cancel his planned trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he expected to meet US President Donald Trump and potentially sign a major post-war economic recovery deal with the US and European allies, following another Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky said over 1 million consumers in Kyiv were without power and more than 4,000 residential buildings in the capital without heating as of last night, with the situation aggravated by extremely cold weather with temperatures as low as -20°C. Meanwhile, foreign media reported that the signing of the $800bn “prosperity plan” for Ukraine in Davos was delayed due to the evolving dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland, though a Trump-Zelensky meeting was still possible, but with no expectations for “any breakthroughs.” On a related note, Zelensky’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, speaking at a panel in Davos, said he viewed the prospects to achieve a peace deal with Russia with “restrained optimism” but cautioned that the process won’t be quick and ultimately depend on Russia’s position.

Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev said in Davos that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have damaged 8.5 GW of thermal and hydroelectric capacity since October, noting that some facilities were repaired and subsequently hit again. As a result, Ukraine is importing record-high electricity volumes of around 1.9 GW and requires about $1bn in external support for the energy sector to address urgent needs, including power generators, mobile substations, and repair equipment.

Ferrexpo said it has suspended operations due to power shortages following recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system and placed part of its workforce on furlough.

According to a Jan. 9-14 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 54% of respondents categorically opposed the Ukrainian army’s withdrawal from the eastern Donetsk region and transfer of this territory under Russian control even in exchange for US and European security guarantees. Another 31% described this Russian demand as “difficult, but generally acceptable,” and 8% as “easily acceptable”—but in both cases only on the condition that Ukraine receives legally binding security guarantees, including the deployment of Western troops and explicit commitments to defend Ukraine in the event of renewed Russian aggression. At the same time, 55% supported holding a national referendum on a peace agreement, while 32% opposed and 14% remained undecided. Asked about President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent statement that presidential elections could be held within several months following a ceasefire, 64% viewed this as a necessary concession in the peace process, while only 18% interpreted it as an attempt by the incumbent to cling to power. However, 71% opposed the idea of online voting due to concerns over fraud risks. Separately, the poll assessed public trust in politicians and well-known public figures. Ambassador to the UK and former commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny ranked highest with 72%, followed by another military figure — recently appointed presidential chief of staff and former military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov — at 70%. President Volodymyr Zelensky ranked third with 62%. (kiis.com.ua)

The National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) raised price caps for the day-ahead power market (DAHD) to UAH 15,000/MWh (EUR 300/MWh) for all hours for the period Jan. 18-Mar. 31, up from current caps of UAH 5,600-6,900/MWh for most of the day and UAH 15,000/MWh for the 17:00-23:00 window. In addition, the government instructed state-owned Naftogaz, Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA), and defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom to cover at least 50% of their electricity consumption through imports until the end of the 2025/26 heating season. On a related note, recently appointed First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmygal said Ukraine needs to add a further 2.2-2.7 GW of power generating capacity across regions, on top of 762 MW of distributed generation commissioned in 2025 and 245 MW in 2024. He also noted that Ukraine is currently co-developing 42 joint energy projects with international partners, with a total value of around $1bn.

Crude steel production in Ukraine declined by 6.9% m-o-m in December to 597 kt (+9.1% y-o-y), bringing full-year output to 7.4 Mt (-2.2% y-o-y). Finished and semi-finished steel production totaled 554 kt in December (-5.9% m-o-m, +15% y-o-y) and 6.5 Mt in 2025 (+4.8% y-o-y). Hot metal production stood at 696 kt in December (-1.2% m-o-m, +23% y-o-y), lifting 2025 output to 7.9 Mt (+11% y-o-y).

   Russian weekly territorial gains have halved thus far in January compared to December, with the intensity of Russian ground attacks also falling notably last week. Russian attacks remain concentrated in the Donetsk and Zaporizhya regions, aiming to approach the key Donetsk strongholds of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and envelop Ukrainian defenses in the south to create conditions for attacking Zaporizhya city.

The EU executive is discussing a fast-track membership plan for Ukraine, conditioned on a peace deal with Russia, that would allow the country to formally join the bloc without being granted full membership rights such as the authority to vote at EU leaders’ summits and ministerial meetings, according to media reports on Friday. The tentative proposal under discussion also calls for giving Ukraine access to parts of the EU single market as well as its agricultural subsidies and internal development funding after meeting post-membership milestones, the Financial Times said. The idea is “at a very early stage,” according to Reuters, and caused “deep unease” among existing EU members as well as countries going through accession procedures, according to reports. Separately, a Ukrainian delegation held another round of discussions in the US over the weekend on security guarantees and a “prosperity plan” for Ukraine as part of a broader US peace framework. National Security and Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov said talks “at the team level” would continue in Davos this week.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy estimated real GDP growth at 2.2% y-o-y in 2025. The ministry said economic activity last year was aided by business support programs financed by foreign assistance, expanding domestic consumption amid strong wage growth, and sizable budget capital expenditures on restoration of critical infrastructure and military procurement from domestic producers. Among sectors posting positive dynamics, the ministry singled out domestic trade, construction, and processing industries, including those linked to defense production.

IMF Director of Communications Julie Kozack said that the IMF Executive Board could consider approval of a new $8.1bn four-year EFF program for Ukraine in February, provided that underlying financial assurances are in place and previously agreed prior actions are completed by the Ukrainian authorities. On financial assurances, the Fund welcomed the EU’s decision to provide EUR 90bn in financial support for 2026-27, calling it “an important milestone toward closing Ukraine’s financing gaps and restoring debt sustainability.”

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, launched a tender offer to repurchase all of its $550m 2026 notes maturing on Apr. 3 at par plus accrued interest. The offer is conditional on the successful placement of a new Eurobond expected to be priced by Jan. 29. Proceeds from the new Eurobond, maturing in 2029, are required to reach at least $450m, which, together with around $100m of the company’s cash, would be sufficient to repurchase and redeem the 2026 bond in full. The tendered and any remaining outstanding 2026 notes are expected to be redeemed around Feb. 18, 2026 (via the tender offer or a call option), while participation in the tender may provide priority allocation in the new 2029 Notes.

According to Bloomberg, unspecified major bondholders of Ukrainian Railways have begun to organize, with Hogan Lovells acting as legal adviser, after the company missed its January coupon payments and reiterated plans to restructure its Eurobonds. Separately, Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukrainian Railways’ long-term issuer rating by one notch to C from CC after the company missed its Jan. 9 coupon and entered a five-business-day grace period. Fitch noted that the rating would be further downgraded to RD if the missed coupon is not paid within the grace period.

Ferrexpo reported 4Q25 pellet production of 0.4 Mt, down 35% q-o-q and 73% y-o-y, bringing full-year output to 3.2 Mt (-47% y-o-y). Quarterly concentrate production declined 24% q-o-q but rose 1.5x y-o-y to 661 kt, lifting 2025 concentrate output to 2.9 Mt (+4.1x y-o-y). Total production amounted to 1.1 Mt in 4Q25, down 29% q-o-q and 39% y-o-y, with full-year output of 6.1 Mt (-9.4% y-o-y).

The European Commission (EC) has adopted a legislative proposal establishing the EUR 90bn Ukraine Support Loan (USL) to cover Ukraine’s budgetary and military needs in 2026-27, following the respective Council decision of Dec. 18, 2025. The amount is tentatively split into (i) EUR 30bn of budget support, to be provided via new macro-financial assistance (MFA) and Pillar I of the existing Ukraine Facility (UF) and linked to reforms, and (ii) EUR 60bn allocated for the procurement of military goods, predominantly produced in Ukraine, the EU, and EEA EFTA countries. The actual size of individual tranches and the final breakdown between MFA, the UF, and the defense component will be decided by the European Council based on an annual Ukraine Financing Strategy prepared by the Ukrainian government and endorsed by the EC. Undisbursed financing may be reduced or canceled if Ukraine’s funding needs decline materially over 2026-27.

Ukrainian parliament confirmed Mykhailo Fedorov as the new defense minister after dismissing him from the post of first deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister. Fedorov’s predecessor, Denys Shmygal, who also had served as prime minister from 2020-25, was appointed first deputy prime minister and energy minister.

The NBU approved amendments to its FX control regulations allowing selected cross-border operations to be conducted within a newly introduced “new loan limit,” defined as the amount of new external loans (excluding IFIs) received after Jan. 1, 2026. Eligible cross-border operations include (i) payment of principal and interest on external loans disbursed before Jun. 20, 2023, (ii) dividend repatriation above the existing cap, (iii) payments for imports delivered before Feb. 23, 2021, and (iv) refunds of prepayments for goods purchased by non-residents before Feb. 23, 2022.