Headline inflation in Ukraine slowed to 7.2% y-o-y in June from 8.2% in May as prices dipped by 0.1% m-o-m after +0.9% in May. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices for raw foods and energy, accelerated to 8.1% y-o-y from 7.9% in May, despite slowing to 0.5% m-o-m from 0.7% in May

Ukraine has put into operation 1.8 GW of distributed gas-fired power generation units, with a tender for another 1.5 GW announced recently, Energy Minister Denys Shmygal said.

DTEK Energy has demonstrated resilient profitability during the ongoing war despite sizable asset losses. While the company lost 42% (5.5 GW) of its pre-war generating capacity to Russia’s occupation and its power plants in Ukraine-controlled territory were heavily damaged by air attacks, its EBITDA averaged $0.7bn in 2022-25, up from a three-year pre-war average of $0.4bn, as government regulation aimed at mitigating severe domestic power shortages allowed electricity prices to double. With 78% of DTEK’s revenues tied to electricity sales, we estimate that a 10% change in electricity prices would result in a $120m change in EBITDA, while a 10% shift in annual electricity production would alter EBITDA by only $70m.

President Donald Trump said the US would grant Ukraine a license to produce interceptors for the Patriot air defense system and signaled the US would consider purchasing drones from the country as it “can make a lot of them.” Speaking at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky during the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump also indirectly supported Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign against military and energy assets in Russia, saying “it’s an escalation, but it’s also an escalation that could help lead to an end.” On a related note, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine was in talks with the Trump administration to obtain Starlink access over Russia in order to expand its attacks, while the Financial Times wrote that, in discussions with NATO allies, Trump made more US support for Ukraine “clear” and was weighing additional steps to help Ukraine turn the tide on the battlefield. In other news from the NATO summit, allies confirmed in the concluding declaration their commitment to provide EUR 70bn ($80bn) in “military equipment, assistance and training” for Ukraine in 2026 and pledged to sustain at least equivalent aid levels in 2027.

Ukraine’s underground gas storage (UGS) inventories increased by 9.1% m-o-m in June, to 12.3 bcm (+52% y-o-y). Net cross-border gas inflows were close to zero last month, in line with to May and down from 0.5 bcm in June 2025, keeping 1H26 net inflows at 2.2 bcm (+9.0% y-o-y).

NBU gross foreign reserves rose by 12% ($5.5bn) m-o-m to $51.3bn in June, narrowing the YTD decline to 11% ($6.0bn). End-June reserves were equivalent to 5.2 months of prospective goods and services imports. The hryvnia depreciated by another 1.3% m-o-m against the USD in June, to UAH 44.8:USD (official rate), following smaller declines of 0.4% in May and 0.6% in April. In 1H26, the currency dropped by 5.5%. The hryvnia recovered slightly in early July, to UAH 44.6:USD as of Jul. 7.

Ukraine exported 3.7 Mt of grain and oilseed crops in June, the final month of marketing year 2025/26 (July-June), down 4.3% m-o-m but up 46% y-o-y. Corn remained Ukraine’s largest export crop in June, although shipments declined 15% m-o-m to 2.0 Mt, while wheat exports surged 29% m-o-m to 1.6 Mt. Grain exports remained unchanged m-o-m at 3.6 Mt in June (+60% y-o-y), while oilseed exports fell by 51% m-o-m to 0.2 Mt (-50% y-o-y). Grain and oilseed exports thus stood at 23.3 Mt in 1H26, up 30% h-o-h and 15% y-o-y, and at 41 Mt in 2025/26 MY, down 12% y-o-y.

According to provisional data from the Ukrainian Finance Ministry, the central budget ran a cash surplus of UAH 102bn ($2.3bn) in June, recovering from a $3.0bn deficit in May and narrowing the 1H26 gap to $7.0bn, or half the $13bn in 1H25.

IFIs may facilitate the restructuring of RAILUA Eurobonds due 2026 and 2028 by “providing additional liquidity in the deal,” Ukrainian Railways CEO Oleksandr Pertsovskyi said. Pertsovskyi also noted that he is waiting for the finalization of the planned 30% freight tariff increase before proceeding with a revised restructuring proposal and that a deal could be reached this year, provided tariffs are increased as planned, IFIs provide financing, and bondholders remain pragmatic. He reiterated that the company is seeking restructuring terms consistent with its long-term financial position rather than a quick agreement that may need to be revisited in a few years.

US President Donald Trump is due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, according to the White House's official schedule. The meeting will follow Trump's Jul. 4 phone calls with Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which were formally dedicated to US Independence Day but also touched on possible further diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Financial Times, citing several anonymous sources, reported that US-brokered trilateral peace talks are unlikely to resume before the end of the summer, as Putin hopes to gain a decisive advantage by sustaining Russia's ground offensive and intensifying aerial attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. One source told the newspaper that Moscow is unlikely to participate in meaningful negotiations before February next year. This morning, commenting on Russia’s latest attack on Kyiv overnight, Zelensky called on NATO leaders to emerge from the Jul. 7-8 summit in Ankara "with strong decisions in support of our air defense."

• Russian advances remain minimal but continue in key Donetsk region sectors; the offensive in the south has largely stalled under pressure from Ukrainian strikes on military logistics. • Russia launched two mass attacks on Kyiv in a span of four days in response to Ukrainian strikes, with the Ukrainian air defense reporting sharply lower interception of ballistic targets.

Industrial production (IP) in Ukraine increased by 0.3% y-o-y in May, slowing from +1.2% in April and +4.5% in March, while narrowing the 5M26 decline to 0.2% from 0.4% in 4M26. At the same time, according to estimates by the government’s statistical office, seasonally adjusted IP rose by 3.1% m-o-m in May, rebounding from a revised 1.4% decline in April.

Ukraine’s direct and guaranteed public debt totaled $211bn as of end-May, down 0.6% m-o-m and 1.2% YTD.

Baseload day-ahead electricity prices in Ukraine rose by 11% m-o-m in June to an average of UAH 5,599 (EUR 109)/MWh, up 11% y-o-y. This brought the 1H26 average price to EUR 134/MWh, up 22% y-o-y. Commercial electricity imports declined by 23% m-o-m in June to 0.4 TWh (still +43% y-o-y), bringing 1H26 imports to 1.0 TWh (+3.4x y-o-y). Exports recovered by 66% m-o-m but remained modest at 0.2 TWh and were down 38% y-o-y. Consequently, net imports fell by 51% m-o-m to 0.2 TWh in June versus marginal net exports a year earlier and increased sevenfold y-o-y to 0.9 TWh in 1H26. (OREE, ENTSO-E)

Cargo transportation in Ukraine increased by 3.5% m-o-m to 29.3 Mt in May, decelerating to just 1.3% in y-o-y terms after a 22% y-o-y jump in April and bringing 5M26 growth to 4.1% y-o-y. Total freight turnover (distance-adjusted) increased by 2.7% m-o-m but stood 16% lower y-o-y.

The National Bank’s survey-based business activity index, a PMI-type gauge, stood at 50.4 on a 0-100 scale in June, down 1.7pt m-o-m and flat y-o-y. (NBU)