A new IMF program for Ukraine could be approved in January 2026, following a mission visit in November, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said yesterday. He noted that the potential delay from December stems from the Fund’s internal procedures.

The European Commission issued a broadly positive evaluation of Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership in its annual enlargement report published yesterday. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Ukraine was among the four candidate countries alongside Montenegro, Albania and Moldova which made the most progress in accession negotiations over the past year. However, she cautioned Ukrainian authorities against backsliding on key reforms, especially in the anticorruption area.

Ukraine’s headline current account (CA) deficit widened to $3.2bn in September from $2.5bn in August, bringing the 9M25 gap to $25bn vs. $12bn in 9M24. The financial and capital account (FA) surplus, including IMF funds, narrowed to $3.4bn from $5.2bn in August, lifting the 9M25 surplus to $26bn vs. $9.7bn a year earlier. The overall balance of payments (BoP) surplus narrowed to $0.2bn from $2.8bn in August, standing at $1.2bn in 9M25 compared with a $2.3bn deficit in 9M24.

According to the minutes of the latest meeting of the NBU’s 10-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which preceded the central bank’s Oct. 23 rate decision, six members supported keeping the key rate unchanged at 15.5%, while four favored a 50bp cut. The more hawkish majority cited heightened pro-inflationary risks stemming from energy shortages, a wider fiscal deficit, and elevated inflation expectations. They also pointed to the deterioration in the attractiveness of UAH assets, reflected in slowing inflows of term deposits to banks and rising household FX demand.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said the government is ready to provide UAH 16bn of state support to rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) in 2026, on top of UAH 13bn allocated in 2025, while the company would need to come up with another UAH 10bn, including via cost cuts. The government also considers increasing the company’s freight tariffs and “will make sure that business does not suffer”.

Ukraine’s direct and guaranteed public debt stood at $194bn as of end-September, up 0.8% m-o-m and 17% YTD.

Key highlights: ·    Russian forces have made significant gains inside Pokrovsk, with some OSINT sources claiming most of the city is under Russian control. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces achieved important advances north of Pokrovsk, continuing to thwart Russian attempts to encircle the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. ·    Despite the latest success in Pokrovsk, overall Russian gains remain modest, totaling ~75 km2 last week and ~240-270 km2 on the entire front in October, with over 6,000 km2 (24%) in Donetsk region (the main axis of the Russian offensive) remaining under Ukrainian control. ·    Ukraine and Russia continued attacking each other’s energy infrastructure; Zelensky confirmed the delivery of additional PATRIOT air defense systems from Germany.

The state rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) will participate in the government’s “Winter Support Program” announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, under which the state will compensate up to 3,000 km of free travel for selected passenger categories. The program will reportedly be launched alongside a broader government initiative to partially compensate passenger transport losses.

Monthly salaries paid to staff workers in Ukraine averaged UAH 26,344 ($634) in 3Q25, up 20% y-o-y on top of 24% growth in 1Q25 (2Q25 data was not released). Adjusted for headline inflation, real salaries rose by 6.2% y-o-y in 3Q25, decelerating from +9.2% in 1Q25. On a related note, the central bank’s enterprise survey showed the share of companies citing shortages of qualified labor as an obstacle to business growth fell to 46% in 3Q25 from 50% in 1Q-2Q25. At the same time, assessed interview-based monthly unemployment rates averaged 12.6% in 3Q25, according to local market research firm Info Sapiens, in line with the 2Q25 average and down from 15.2% in 1Q25.

Cargo transportation in Ukraine totaled 239 Mt in 9M25, slowing the rate of decline to -9.7% y-o-y from -11.3% in 8M25. Half of the total volume, 121 Mt or 51%, was carried by rail, followed by road vehicles (91 Mt, 38%) and pipelines (27 Mt, 11%).

US President Donald Trump said he discussed ending the war in Ukraine during his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “Ukraine came up very strongly, we talked about it for a long time. And we're both going to work together to see if we can get something done,” Trump was quoted as saying. Trump said he and Xi agreed that Ukraine and Russia are “locked in” on the battlefield, adding “they're fighting and sometimes you have to let them fight, I guess,” and concluding “but [Xi] is going to help us and we’re going to work together on Ukraine.”

Russia carried out another mass drone and missile attack on Ukraine overnight, this time targeting power infrastructure in western and southern regions. According to unofficial monitoring channels, Russia deployed over 50 ballistic and cruise missiles and at least dozens of strike drones. Official data from the Ukrainian Air Force were not available as of writing.

Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretsky said Ukraine will need to import an additional 4 bcm of gas by the end of the heating season in 1Q26, worth an estimated $1.9bn, with the bulk of this volume already secured. The company also said its gas infrastructure in Poltava region suffered new damage following a Russian drone and missile attack on Tuesday.

The Ministry of Finance placed UAH 47bn ($1.1bn) of hryvnia-denominated bonds and $350m of FX papers primary auctions in October. Additionally, it conducted a switch auction to swap UAH 15bn of benchmark bonds due November 2025 for a benchmark issue maturing in July 2029. With UAH 63bn ($1.5bn) of UAH bonds and $350m of FX bonds redeemed during the month ($1.9bn in total, including the swapped bonds), MinFin is finishing October with a net redemption of $6m, down from a $335m net placement in September and bringing the YTD net placement volume to $726m. The aggregate rollover rate stood at 100% in October (vs. 137% in September) and 107% YTD.

Fitch Ratings has upgraded DTEK Energy B.V.’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to CCC- from CC, citing a reduced risk of imminent default following several bond repurchases and partial stabilization of business operations, though refinancing risk remains high. Fitch noted that DTEK’s coal mining operations continue despite recent Russian shelling, while electricity output is expected to stay volatile.

Real retail turnover in Ukraine rose by 7.1% y-o-y in September, accelerating from 6.3% in August and bringing the 9M25 tally to 6.0% y-o-y, in line with 8M25.