US President Donald Trump, meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte yesterday, announced “billions of dollars worth of military equipment” to be purchased from the US by NATO countries and “quickly distributed to the battlefield in Ukraine.” In particular, Trump said Ukraine would receive more PATRIOT air defense batteries and interceptors from third countries “very soon,” with German officials confirming their request to buy two PATRIOT systems for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky also signaled additional PATRIOT deliveries would be financed by Norway. US media suggested the first wave of US weapons sales via NATO to Ukraine would be worth $10bn and include missiles, air defense supplies, and artillery shells. According to Rutte, countries ready to participate in the US weapons deal include Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada. In related comments, Trump once again expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said he was giving Russia 50 days to stop the war or face 100% “secondary” tariffs and other punitive measures.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday an imminent government reshuffle, saying he offered Yulia Svyrydenko, currently first deputy PM and economy minister, to take up the post of prime minister, with the outgoing PM, Denys Shmygal, to head the Defense Ministry.

Key highlights: Russian forces continued their slow advance towards Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region border along with attempts to outflank the nearby Donetsk region stronghold of Pokrovsk. The tempo of Russian assaults increased to almost 200 per day, one of the highest levels this year. Russia conducted a new record aerial strike against Ukraine on Jul. 9, deploying over 700 drones.

US President Donald Trump is today expected to announce a new initiative to arm Ukraine, potentially including offensive weapons such as long-range missiles, the US media outlet Axios has reported. The plan, which may be unveiled during Trump’s meeting with visiting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, reportedly envisions European countries financing the purchase of US-made weapons for Ukraine.

The state rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) will receive EUR 54m in grant financing from the EBRD to fund decentralized gas-fired power generation (EUR 41m) and barrier-free access at train stations (EUR 10m) as well as support the company’s war veterans (EUR 3m).

At the fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) held in Rome, the European Commission announced a EUR 3.05bn budget support tranche under Pillar I of the EUR 50bn, four-year Ukraine Facility program, scheduled for disbursement in August. Additionally, the Commission unveiled a EUR 2.3bn package of agreements with international and bilateral public financial institutions under Pillar II of the program — also known as the Ukraine Investment Framework — targeted at Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction. This Pillar II financing includes EUR 1.8bn in guarantees and EUR 0.6bn in grants for institutions such as the EBRD, World Bank, and others, with the goal of supporting Ukraine’s energy sector, SMEs, and broader reconstruction efforts. The Commission expects this funding to mobilize up to EUR 10bn in investments.

US President Donald Trump said the US has reached agreement with NATO allies for them to finance supplies of US weapons sent to Ukraine, including the PATRIOT air defense systems. “We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%,” Trump told NBC News. Trump also reiterated his earlier statement the he was disappointed with Russia’s unwillingness to end its war in Ukraine and said he would make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday. He added that he expects the Senate to pass tougher sanctions on Russia to give him additional means to pressure Moscow if he decided to. “It’s at my option if I want to use it,” Trump said.

According to a Jul. 4-5 poll conducted by the Rating Group, a private Ukrainian pollster, 67% of respondents said they trusted President Volodymyr Zelensky, slightly down from this year’s high of 70% in March but well above last year’s scores of 53-57%. The share of those distrusting the president stood at 29%, below 2024 levels of around 40%. At the same time, former army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, currently Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, had a notably higher trust score of 73% in July (vs. 18% distrusting him), though it dropped from as high as 90% in 2023-24.

Ukraine’s headline CPI rose by 0.8% m-o-m in June, slowing from 1.3% in May. Annual inflation decelerated to 14.2% y-o-y from a peak of 15.9% in May, marking the first decline after 13 consecutive months of acceleration. Core inflation — which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices for raw foods and energy — rose 0.3% m-o-m (vs. +0.5% in May), with the y-o-y reading easing slightly to 12.1% from 12.3% in May.

Ukraine’s external budget funding needs will exceed $40bn in 2026, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said yesterday in remarks at a Ukrainian donor platform meeting. Separately, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the EU is seeking up to $19bn in additional financing for Ukraine in 2026. Bloomberg also noted yesterday that the EU is considering a EUR 100bn Ukraine support fund as part of its next seven-year budget framework starting in 2028.

Ukrainian farmers began harvesting early crops in late June, with the harvested area reaching 0.4 Mha as of Jul. 3 — down 67% y-o-y and representing 2.0% of the total area under grain and oilseed crops.

Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA), the state-owned rail monopoly, announced its intention to make the upcoming coupon payments on its 2026 and 2028 Eurobonds, totaling $43m and due on Jul. 9 and Jul. 15, respectively. The company also stated that it plans to pursue a comprehensive solution for its Eurobond liabilities, aiming to “deliver adequate debt relief and alleviate liquidity challenges over the coming years.”

Fitch Ratings downgraded Metinvest’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to CCC- from CCC, citing heightened refinancing risk related to its $428m Eurobond maturing in April 2026. The agency does not expect the company to have sufficient liquidity to repay the notes at maturity, although it sees no issues with continued coupon payments. Fitch projects a material decline in adjusted EBITDA to approximately $500m in 2025, down from $910m in 2024 ($957m reported by Metinvest), primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Pokrovske coal mine. As a result, the company is expected to generate negative free cash flow this year, with end-2025 cash forecast to fall to $320m from $657m at end-2024. Fitch estimates 2025 output at 3.4 Mt of steel products and 16 Mt of iron ore products, and assumes annual CAPEX of $210m during 2025-2027 with no dividend payments.

Interpipe reported 1Q25 net sales of $269m (+8.7% q-o-q), while EBITDA fell 21% q-o-q to $66m, with the EBITDA margin narrowing to 25%. Net income declined by 53% q-o-q to $36m. Pipe sales rose 27% q-o-q to 147 kt, while wheel sales remained flat at 26 kt. Average realized pipe prices dropped 17% q-o-q to $1,551/t, and wheel prices declined 4.4% q-o-q to $2,211/t. Energy and input costs continued to rise overall: average electricity prices were stable q-o-q at $138/MWh (yet +60% y-o-y), while gas prices jumped 16% q-o-q to $412/tcm (+35% y-o-y) and scrap prices rose 11% q-o-q to $217/t.

The Ukrainian National Bank’s gross international reserves rose by 1.2% m-o-m ($0.5bn) to $45.1bn in June, equivalent to 5.6 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar was flat m-o-m at UAH 41.6:USD — up 1.0% YTD but down 2.7% y-o-y.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday the US would send more of primarily defensive weapons to Ukraine to help its army repulse Russian attacks. “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” Trump said. In a concurrent statement, the Pentagon said, “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops.” Politico wrote, citing anonymous officials, that deliveries of US engineering equipment and armored vehicles would resume shortly, without providing a timeline.