The European Commission proposed disbursing EUR 45bn from the EUR 90bn Ukraine Support Loan (USL) in 2026, including EUR 16.7bn in direct budget support — split evenly between the existing Ukraine Facility and new macro-financial assistance (MFA) — and EUR 28.3bn for procurement of defense products produced in Ukraine, the EU, EEA/EFTA countries, or other eligible jurisdictions subject to specific criteria. The budget support component will be conditional on progress in rule of law, anti-corruption reforms, and economic resilience, with MFA disbursements expected to come first. The proposal requires approval by the European Council, while disbursements will become possible once all USL-related procedures are finalized, including approval of guarantees backed by the EU budget’s “headroom” — the difference between the maximum resources the European Commission can request from member states and its actual annual budget needs. Separately, the European Commission approved Ukraine’s request for derogations from standard procurement rules to enable urgent drone purchases for the ongoing war against Russia. These exemptions essentially allow the use of EU funding to procure products containing components sourced outside the EU, EEA/EFTA, or Ukraine, provided urgency is demonstrated.

Ukraine’s Finance Ministry raised $0.2bn in net proceeds at primary bond auctions in March, down from $0.5bn per month in January and February, bringing YTD net sales to $1.2bn. Last month’s net issuance included UAH 7.0bn ($160m) of UAH-denominated bonds (including a switch auction to exchange UAH8.4bn of bonds maturing in March for a new 2029 issue) and $50m of USD-denominated bonds. The total rollover rate stood at 146% in 1Q26, including 161% for UAH bonds and 80% for FX bonds.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, announced the acquisition of 190,000ha of farming assets from its founder and Board chairman Andrii Verevskyi for $348m. The first $300m installment will be paid immediately upon settlement, with the remaining balance due by Jun. 30, 2026.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, announced the acquisition of 190,000ha of farming assets from its founder and Board chairman Andrii Verevskyi for $348m. The first $300m installment will be paid immediately upon settlement, with the remaining balance due by Jun. 30, 2026.

Ukraine’s direct and guaranteed public debt totaled $213bn as of end-February, down 0.8% m-o-m and flat YTD, the Finance Ministry reported.

Gross monthly salaries of staff employees in Ukraine increased by 1.1% m-o-m in February to UAH 28,321 ($656) on average, marking a 22% y-o-y rise, in line with January and the 2025 average. In real terms, wage growth accelerated to 14% y-o-y from 13% in January and 7.1% in 2025.

Ukraine expects to receive EUR 45bn in financial support from the EU’s EUR 90bn Ukraine Support Loan (USL) this year, including EUR 17-18bn in budgetary aid and EUR 28bn for defense purposes, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. The defense component would include funding for domestic weapons production and procurement of air defense systems in Europe and the US.

Ukraine’s real GDP declined by 1.2% y-o-y in 2M26, Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev said, citing provisional estimates. The drop was caused by Russia’s intensified aerial attacks and extremely cold weather, which disrupted operations at many companies, with electricity production, transportation, and the metal and mining sector suffering the most.

Ukraine’s State Statistic Service reported real retail turnover growth of 7.5% y-o-y in February, down from 13.4% in January and bringing 2M26 growth to 10.5% y-o-y. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail turnover declined by 2.0% m-o-m in February, following a revised 4.6% drop in January.

·    Another week of only marginal front-line changes, with overall Russian gains in March likely to mark a two-year low. ·    Russian attacks remain concentrated in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are trying to approach the key Ukrainian-controlled cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk from several directions — but only very slowly so far. ·    Aerial warfare intensified last week, with Ukraine striking Russia’s Baltic Sea ports and oil refineries almost daily and Russia deploying record numbers of drones.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has toured four Gulf region countries in the past five days, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan to promote Ukraine’s anti-drone capabilities. Ukraine signed 10-year defense partnerships with the former two countries and plans to shortly ink a similar deal with the UAE, Zelensky said, adding that the agreements envisage building joint manufacturing facilities and exchanging “experience and resources.”

Cargo transportation in Ukraine fell by 4.1% m-o-m and 7.4% y-o-y in February, to 24 Mt, bringing the 2M26 decline to 6.4% y-o-y. Rail freight fell by 5.6% m-o-m and 15% y-o-y to 10.5 Mt in February and by 18% y-o-y in 2M26, while road transportation reached 10.5 Mt, up 7.7% m-o-m and 14% y-o-y. Total freight turnover (distance-adjusted) dropped by 4.4% m-o-m and 19% y-o-y. Passenger transportation turnover declined by 12% m-o-m and 11% y-o-y in February.

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia with an unannounced visit yesterday, with unconfirmed media reports saying Ukraine and Saudi Arabia intended to sign an air security agreement. Zelensky will also visit other Gulf countries to promote Ukraine’s anti-drone expertise, Bloomberg reported.

Bloomberg reported that the Ukrainian government only has enough cash to cover spending until June, citing estimates by unnamed domestic and foreign officials.

According to a Mar. 12-18 nationwide survey conducted by SOCIS, a private Ukrainian pollster, President Volodymyr Zelensky would win a potential first round of presidential elections with 23% of the vote, beating former army commander-in-chief and Ukraine’s current ambassador to the UK Valeriy Zaluzhny on 19% (29% vs. 25% among decided voters). Presidential chief of staff and former director of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov polled third on 11%.

Hungary will gradually cut of gas flows to Ukraine until shipments of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline are restored, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.