The NBU Board left the central bank’s key rate unchanged at 15.5% at its Sep. 11 meeting, keeping it flat since March after a cumulative 250bp hike over December 2024–March 2025. The decision was in line with the NBU’s current key rate guidance and underpinned by continuing disinflation. The Bank noted that headline inflation slowed to 13.2% y-o-y in August from its 15.9% May peak, faster than expected, while core CPI decelerated to 11.4% y-o-y, close to its projections. Inflation expectations remain stable, supported by the growing attractiveness of UAH-denominated assets and a stable FX market.

The IMF estimates Ukraine’s uncovered external funding gap for 2026-27 may be $10-20 bn higher than the government’s current projection of $37.5 bn, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. The discrepancy emerged during consultations between Ukrainian officials and the IMF staff mission, which took place 3–10 September in Kyiv. Both sides are expected to agree on a final figure next week before the IMF considers Ukraine’s request for a new program, after which they will reach out to Ukraine’s allies to secure the required financing.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, reported 2Q25 revenue of $856m (+9.9% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), EBITDA of $133m (+11% q-o-q, -13% y-o-y; incl. IFRS 16), and net income of $43m (+34% q-o-q, +48% y-o-y). Quarterly EBITDA before IFRS 16 stood at $125m (+13% q-o-q, -14% y-o-y). End-1H25 net debt before IFRS 16 stood at $1,243m, implying Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.30x (vs. 2.08x at end-2024). End-1H25 cash balances totaled $328m, down from $355m at end-2024, with c.47% of total held outside Ukraine.

DTEK Renewables has commissioned six battery energy storage systems (BESS) produced by US firm Fluence with a combined capacity of 200 MW/400 MWh (equivalent to two hours at peak output). Total project cost was EUR 125m.

The European Union said in a statement yesterday that the Sep. 10 violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones reinforced its resolve to support Ukraine and will lead to a significant ramp-up of sanctions against “Russia and its enablers.” In a series of other statements in the last two days, European allies and Ukraine announced new military aid commitments and joint defense projects: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in her State of the Union address yesterday, said the EU will frontload EUR 6bn in loans to Ukraine from ERA, a $50bn mechanism established in 2024 and backed by future profits from immobilized Russian assets, and enter into a “drone alliance” with the country. President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the EU to “find even more ways to use frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.” Von der Leyen also announced a longer-term Qualitative Military Edge program to invest in strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities, calling the latter “the first line of security guarantees.” EU defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius reported that 13 out of 19 EU member states that applied for loans under the EUR 150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defense funding program planned to use the money to support Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmygal said the EU planned to allocate EUR 6.6bn from the European Peace Facility to procure US weapons for Ukraine. He also announced EUR 300m in German funding for Ukrainian long-range drones and a JV with Denmark to manufacture long-range weapons. The UK government, as part of a recent industrial partnership agreement with Ukraine, announced domestic production of thousands of interceptor drones to be delivered to Ukraine in the next 12 months.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed utilizing cash balances associated with immobilized Russian frozen assets in Europe to provide a “reparation loan” for Ukraine that will be repaid once and if Russia pays war reparations to the country.

Russia conducted another mass aerial strike against Ukraine overnight, launching 415 drones and 43 cruise and ballistic missiles. The attack targeted Ukraine’s westernmost regions of Volyn and Lviv, along with 13 other regions, and a number of drones crossed into Polish airspace — at least eight, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The Polish Air Force shot down an unspecified number of drones, with one reportedly damaging a residential building in a village roughly 15 km from the border. Four Polish airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin Airport (150 km from the border), were temporarily closed during the attack.

According to local media outlet Ekonomichna Pravda, central budget spending on security and defense will need to increase by another UAH 300bn ($7.3bn) this year. The additional outlays stem from higher weapons procurement needs and a sharp rise in compensation to families of fallen servicemen following intensified body-swaps with Russia. Amendments to the budget law could be adopted by end-October, with the extra military spending to be financed through a mix of lower non-military outlays, domestic borrowing and the use of front-loaded foreign support.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has formally requested the IMF to launch a new support program. Building on the ongoing mission visit, Ukrainian authorities and the IMF will continue consultations in the coming months, aiming for a “positive decision from the IMF Board of Directors by the end of this year.”

Ukraine’s headline CPI edged down 0.2% m-o-m in August, matching July’s pace and slowing the y-o-y rate to 13.2% from 14.1% in July. Core inflation (which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices of raw foods and energy) rose 0.5% m-o-m, after +0.3% in July, bringing y-o-y growth to 11.4% from 11.7%.

The average baseload day-ahead (DAHD) electricity price stood at UAH 5,188/MWh in August, flat m-o-m but down 5.6% y-o-y (equivalent to EUR 108/MWh, +1.6% m-o-m, -11% y-o-y). September baseload supply contracts at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange are currently priced at UAH 4,973/MWh (EUR 103/MWh), down 8.2% m-o-m and 1% y-o-y. Commercial electricity imports rose 1.8% m-o-m but fell 44% y-o-y in August to 263 GWh (353 MW average), with import capacity utilization at only 16% — far below the 1.2 GW peak of July 2024. Exports increased 59% m-o-m to 451 GWh (606 MW average), with capacity utilization at 67%. On a net basis, Ukraine exported 188 GWh in August, remaining a small net exporter for the third consecutive month after 18 months as a sizable net importer.

Daily crude steel production in Ukraine rose 12% m-o-m to 20.9 kt in August, bringing monthly output to 649 kt (+12% m-o-m, -6% y-o-y) and 8M25 production to 4.9 Mt (-6.9% y-o-y). Finished and semi-finished steel output totaled 633 kt in August (+15% m-o-m, +7.4% y-o-y) and 4.3 Mt in 8M25 (-1.4% y-o-y).

Key highlights: Russian territorial gains remained marginal despite increased intensity of fighting and reported redeployment of marine and airborne units to Donetsk region. Russia conducted a record mass aerial attack on Sep. 7, deploying over 800 drones and hitting the government building in Kyiv. US and European officials to discuss economic pressure measures against Russia in the coming days, while President Trump pre-announced another call with Putin.

DTEK Group CEO Maksym Tymchenko said in a Bloomberg interview that DTEK Energy plans to restore its available power generating capacities to the level it had before Russia launched its campaign of targeted attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in March 2024. Tymchenko said the company is preparing for another difficult winter, including by physically protecting its assets from further Russian strikes attacks, but added that “ultimately we depend on our defense forces in Ukraine.” On a related note, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry said the Russian army attacked a thermal power plant in Kyiv region overnight.

A fire broke out at WSE-listed Kernel Holding’s grain terminal in the port of Chornomorsk on Sep. 6, reportedly damaging a conveyor line used to transport grain to ships. The blaze — reportedly not caused by a Russian air attack — was extinguished.

French President Emmanuel Macron said yesterday that 26 countries have finalized their commitments to participate in post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, pledging to contribute capabilities “on land, in the sea or in the air.” He did not specify how many countries were ready to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.