The European Council agreed to provide a EUR 90bn ($105bn) loan to Ukraine to cover the country’s 2026-27 external funding needs. The funds are expected to be borrowed by the EU on capital markets and backed by headroom in the EU budget (untapped spending in the bloc’s shared budget), with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia waived from providing guarantees. Ukraine will be required to repay this loan only if it receives reparations from Russia. Until then, Russian assets in the EU will remain immobilized, with the EU reserving “its right to make use of them to repay the loan.” Loan tranches are expected to be conditioned, among other things, on Ukraine's continued upholding of the rule of law, including fight against corruption. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the money will be provided to Ukraine at zero interest.

The Ukrainian government announced yesterday that 99% of investors holding its GDP warrants supported the proposed restructuring of the instrument, above the required 75% threshold. Following the vote, Ukraine will issue $3.497bn of new C-series sovereign bonds amortizing over 2030-32, as well as a small amount ($34m) of existing B-series bonds. The government will also pay an estimated $185m consent fee to warrant holders and cancel $0.604bn of warrants previously repurchased from the market.

The stock of gross hryvnia-denominated loans issued by Ukrainian banks rose by 2.5% m-o-m to UAH 1,040bn in November, accelerating from +1.7% in October and +0.9% in September, lifting YTD growth to 25% vs. 17% in 11M24. FX-denominated loans increased by 2.3% m-o-m to $7.1bn, slowing from +4.0% in October and bringing YTD growth to 12.6% after a 5.5% decline in 11M24. Hryvnia deposits grew by 2.2% m-o-m to UAH 2,049bn, broadly in line with October’s +2.1%, with YTD growth at a moderate 8.8% (vs. 7.1% in 11M24). FX deposits fell by 2.5% m-o-m to $20.4bn, slowing YTD growth to 1.8% (vs. 3.1% in 11M24).

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, attracted a $77m loan from state-owned Oschadbank to cover its working capital needs. Part of the loan (up to $36.7m over seven years) can also fund CAPEX, including renewal of Kernel’s agricultural machinery fleet and reconstruction of its grain terminal in the port of Chornomorsk. (Oschadbank)

Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit provisionally totaled $4.0bn in November, widening marginally from $3.9bn in October as exports declined by 3.5% m-o-m to $3.6bn (-2.7% y-o-y) while imports were stable at $7.6bn (+23% y-o-y).

Ukraine’s iron ore exports totaled 28.8 Mt in 11M25 (-4.9% y-o-y), implying that November volumes fell by 8.7% m-o-m to 2.2 Mt (-10% y-o-y). In value terms, iron ore exports reached $2.2bn in 11M25 (-14% y-o-y), with November down 13% m-o-m to $169m (-10% y-o-y). Realized export prices averaged $77/t in November (-4.7% m-o-m) and $76/t in 11M25 (-10% y-o-y). Steel exports declined by 4.7% y-o-y in 11M25 to 3.7 Mt, implying a 5.5% m-o-m drop in November to 378 kt (+90% y-o-y). In value terms, steel exports totaled $2.1bn in 11M25 (-7.3% y-o-y), with November down 5.7% m-o-m to $208m (+82% y-o-y). The average realized steel export price was flat m-o-m at $550/t in November (-5.0% y-o-y) and stood at $564/t in 11M25 (-2.7% y-o-y).

Metinvest reported the acquisition of ArcelorMittal Tubular Products Iasi, a Romanian welded pipe plant with annual capacity of 240 kt. The company said the deal will enable it to supply up to 280 kt of hot-rolled coils from its Zaporizhstal JV. The asset is expected to be fully integrated into Metinvest’s production and organizational chains in 2026.

Daily crude steel production in Ukraine averaged 21.4 kt in November (+2.1% m-o-m), with monthly output dropping 1.2% m-o-m to 641 kt (+19% y-o-y) and bringing 11M25 production to 6.8 Mt (-3.1% y-o-y). Finished and semi-finished steel output totaled 589 kt in November, up 10% m-o-m and 24% y-o-y, with 11M25 production at 6.0 Mt (+3.9% y-o-y). Hot metal production stood at 704 kt last month, up 1.8% m-o-m and 30% y-o-y, and 7.2 Mt in 11M25 (10% y-o-y).

Nasdaq-listed Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile network operator and leading digital player, has acquired a solar power plant (SPP) with a capacity of 12.9 MW located in Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region, reporting transaction value of UAH 347.6m ($8.2m). Electricity produced by the SPP will be supplied to Ukraine’s power grid, enabling the company to partially hedge risks related to fluctuations in electricity prices. According to company estimates, the plant can generate electricity equivalent to c. 4% of Kyivstar’s annual consumption. Kyivstar plans to explore additional acquisition opportunities in the alternative energy sector.

US President Donald Trump positively assessed the latest round of talks between US, Ukrainian and European officials on a revised US peace proposal held in Berlin yesterday, saying “things are seemingly going well” and commending European leaders for “tremendous support.” While saying “we’re closer now than we have ever been and we will see what we can do,” Trump noted the challenge of getting Ukraine and Russia “on the same page,” adding “the problem is they’ll want to get it ended, and then all of a sudden they won’t.”

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimated real GDP growth at 5.3% y-o-y in November, up from 2.3% in October. The Ministry said the acceleration was driven by agriculture, retail turnover, construction, and the processing industry.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, reported 3Q25 revenue of $1.0bn (+17% q-o-q and +29% y-o-y), EBITDA of $244m (+83% q-o-q and +23% y-o-y; incl. IFRS 16), and net income of $140m (+3.3x q-o-q and +46% y-o-y). EBITDA before IFRS 16 stood at $219m, up 75% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y. The results consolidate Spanish meat producer Uvesa, acquired on Jul. 31, 2025, with August-September revenue contribution of $126m and EBITDA and net income contributions of $9m and $3m, respectively.

Russia signaled over the weekend that it was likely to reject the US peace plan with changes proposed by Ukraine and European allies. President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said on Sunday “the contribution of Ukrainians and Europeans to these documents is unlikely to be constructive.” “We have not seen [the revised peace plan] yet, but if there are … amendments, we will have very sharp objections … including on the territorial issue,” Ushakov said in televised comments published before a new round of US-Ukrainian talks in Berlin. In earlier comments, Ushakov reiterated that a ceasefire and broader settlement to the war in Ukraine remained conditional on the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk region, insisting that this territory would in any scenario remain under Russian administration, potentially without regular Russian troops but with Russia’s national guard and police to maintain order. Additionally, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected on Friday Ukraine’s idea of holding a referendum over disputed Donbas territory, saying it was aimed at achieving a pause in fighting which Russia would not allow as its goas was to negotiate a long-term peace deal.

Key highlights: ·    Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Kupyansk (Kharkiv region), the city Russia recently claimed captured, reportedly encircling several hundred Russian troops — one of the most successful Ukrainian operations since the 2024 Kursk incursion.  ·    Russian forces captured around 80 km2 last week, one of the smallest advances in recent weeks, achieving only limited gains despite a high tempo of attacks. ·    Ukraine received an est. $38bn in foreign military aid, virtually all of that from European counties in 10M25, higher than assessed actual aid amounts in each of the previous three years of the war.

On the night of Dec. 13, Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, targeting energy infrastructure, deep-sea port facilities, the commercial fleet, and industrial sites. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the assault involved 465 drones and 30 cruise and ballistic missiles, of which 417 drones and 13 missiles were intercepted.

The Council of the European Union approved the disbursement of EUR 2.3bn to Ukraine under the EUR 50bn four-year Ukraine Facility, including EUR 2.1bn in loans and EUR 0.2bn in grants. The tranche will be the sixth disbursement under the program and reflects completion of eight out of ten conditions scheduled for 3Q25, as well as delayed implementation of one condition from 1Q25.