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10.02.2026
| Daily

MPC majority supports January key rate cut, sees little room for further easing

According to the minutes of the latest meeting of the NBU’s 11-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which preceded the central bank’s Jan. 29 rate decision, eight members supported a 50bp cut in the key policy rate to 15.0% p.a., two members favored a deeper 100bp cut, and one member voted to keep the rate unchanged. The majority cited steady disinflation, reduced risks to external financing following approval of the EU’s EUR 90bn Ukraine Support Loan for 2026-27, and strong demand for UAH-denominated assets as reasons to resume monetary easing. At the same time, the majority emphasized the need for caution in light of pro-inflationary risks stemming from damage to the energy sector and the fading disinflationary impact of last year’s bumper harvest. Most MPC members see limited scope for further rate cuts in 2026, pointing to inflationary risks from ongoing energy infrastructure damage and a likely increase in budget spending on defense and reconstruction. If the risk balance remains unchanged, a few small cuts to 14.5% would be sufficient. Several members, however, assess inflation risks as broadly balanced, citing spillover effects from last year’s strong harvest, weakening consumer demand, and the NBU’s strengthened capacity to maintain FX market stability. These members see more room for easing this year, potentially to 12.5-13.5%. All MPC members agreed that the NBU should respond flexibly to changes in the risk balance and stand ready to pause further easing if pro-inflationary pressures intensify. At the same time, a moderation of inflation risks would open the door to faster policy easing to support economic activity.
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