Ukraine signed 28 energy deals worth more than EUR 1bn at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Poland, including grant and loan financing, investment projects and memorandums aimed at preparing for the 2026/27 heating season, expanding distributed generation and strengthening the resilience of the energy system. Among the major deals: • Naftogaz signed a $300m financing agreement with the US EXIM Bank to fund purchases from US suppliers. • Ukrenergo inked a EUR 90m state-guaranteed loan with the EBRD to finance protection of energy infrastructure and creation of a strategic stock of equipment. The agreement also provides for the reconstruction of three substations and construction of a new substation in western Ukraine. • GE Vernova will supply a 650 MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) to DTEK Holding to improve the flexibility of Ukraine's power system. • EUR 178m in Dutch support for the procurement of critical energy equipment, including gas turbines, transformers and backup equipment, as well as at least EUR 375m under the “Energy Ramstein” framework for the repair and protection of critical infrastructure. (Interfax-Ukraine)

The EU disbursed the first EUR 3.2bn ($3.7bn) tranche of macro-financial assistance (MFA) under its EUR 90bn Ukraine Support Loan (USL) for 2026-27, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced yesterday at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Poland. She also said that the first EUR 6bn tranche under the package’s defense component would be disbursed in the coming days and directed toward Ukraine’s drone production.

State power transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported 2025 revenue of $2.6bn (+2.6% y-o-y), while net losses narrowed to $256m from $946m in 2024. End-June cash declined 25% y-o-y to $277m, with the majority held in Ukraine. Total debt increased 3.4% y-o-y to $2.5bn, implying a Debt/EBITDA ratio of 7.2x, up from 5.3x at end-2024.

NATO’s key European members plan to use the alliance’s upcoming summit on Jul. 7-8 to “further substantially support Ukraine,” including through additional sanctions on Russia and measures to strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s energy sector, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK said following a meeting yesterday. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz added that Berlin proposed approving another “strong financial commitment” for Kyiv at the summit. On a related note, US President Donald Trump acknowledged Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes, saying during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that President Volodymyr Zelensky was doing “pretty well” and “holding his own” against Russia. Against this backdrop, Zelensky said in his Wednesday evening address that he had instructed Ukrainian forces to carry out pre-emptive strikes against facilities Russia uses to sustain and intensify the war in order to compel Moscow to resume peace talks. “Our operation, including the one in Crimea, is carefully calculated, and the way it is unfolding fully proves: if Ukraine receives exactly what we discussed with our partners within the G7 … we will promptly create the conditions that will force Russia to choose peace,” he said. Meanwhile in Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s unchanged hardline demands, saying Russia would not accept a ceasefire along the current frontline as a condition for restarting negotiations. Russia remains open to talks at any time, but “there must be a serious proposal on the table,” without temporary solutions, Lavrov said, adding that a visit by Trump’s envoys to Moscow remained under discussion and that Russia was prepared to hear them out. A day earlier, President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was ready for negotiations with Ukraine on the basis of the draft agreements discussed in Istanbul in 2022, Russia’s subsequent conditions articulated in 2024, and current “realities on the ground.”

Ukrainian Railways CEO Oleksandr Pertsovskyi told local media that a 30% freight tariff increase planned from August is expected to be followed by a further 15% hike from January 2027. However, the decision on the second-stage increase will be considered separately, he said.

The World Bank’s (WB) Board of Executive Directors approved a $3.4bn Development Policy Operation (DPO) program for Ukraine. The financing consists of a $1.04bn WB loan, backed by guarantees from Japan and the UK, and a $2.4bn grant from a special WB vehicle, the Facilitation of Resources to Invest in Strengthening Ukraine (F.O.R.T.I.S.) Fund, created earlier to channel US contributions to the G7’s ERA mechanism for Ukraine. The WB said that the decision followed Ukraine’s significant reform progress in setting conditions for private investment and job creation, as well as advancing cross-border market integration with the EU.

Exports of finished and semi-finished steel from Ukraine rose 19% m-o-m to 358 kt in May (+17% y-o-y), bringing 5M26 exports to 1.4 Mt (-4.0% y-o-y). Iron ore exports increased 3.5% m-o-m to 2.2 Mt in May (-6.6% y-o-y) and fell 26% y-o-y to 10 Mt in 5M26.

Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit provisionally totaled $4.6bn in May, narrowing slightly from $5.1bn in April, but widening from $2.8bn in May 2025. In 5M26, the merchandise trade deficit stood at $22.9bn, up from $14.3bn in 5M25.

The Ministry for Regional Development published on Jun. 19 a draft order proposing a 30% increase in railway freight tariffs starting in August, alongside the unification of tariffs for empty wagons across cargo classes. The higher tariffs are expected to generate UAH 8.6bn in additional revenue for Ukrainian Railways already in 2026, helping to partially cover this year’s estimated liquidity gap of around UAH 26bn.

• Russian forces make further marginal gains in Donetsk region and step up attacks on Kharkiv front; Ukrainian forces proceed with counterattacks along Dnipropetrovsk region border. • Ukrainian UAVs hit Moscow oil refinery twice last week. • Ukrainian forces continue targeting road, rail and ferry supply routes to Crimea, exacerbating fuel shortages and power blackouts on the peninsula.

Ukrainian banks’ net stock of UAH loans (adjusted for NPLs) increased by 33% y-o-y to UAH 920bn in May, marginally slowing from 34% growth in April as a deceleration in net corporate loans (+30% y-o-y to UAH 582bn, vs. +34% in April) was offset by accelerating retail lending (+37% y-o-y to UAH 339bn, up from +35% in April). The hryvnia deposit base expanded by 18% y-o-y to UAH 2,252bn last month, after growing by 16% in April, while FX deposits increased by 4.7% y-o-y to $21.1bn, in line with April’s growth.

The NBU Board kept the policy rate unchanged at 15.0% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with its current forward guidance. The Bank said the decision keeps monetary conditions sufficiently tight, given continued strong demand for UAH-denominated assets, while risks related to the Middle East conflict and external financing have diminished. The NBU also noted that inflation expectations remain stable, albeit elevated among certain surveyed groups. At the same time, the NBU said fundamental inflationary pressures continue to intensify, particularly due to stronger-than-expected secondary effects from higher energy prices. The Bank reiterated its readiness to raise the key rate if necessary to keep inflation expectations under control and return inflation to a steady disinflationary path toward the 5% target. The final decision will be based on the updated macroeconomic forecast to be released in July. The central bank’s assessment of key inflation risks remained largely unchanged and centered on the ongoing war, including intensified damage from Russian attacks, higher fiscal financing needs and, consequently, imports, as well as persistent labor shortages and outward migration. On the upside, the NBU highlighted the potential for stronger military and financial support from partners and renewed international efforts to end the war. The NBU will publish minutes of the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Jun. 29. The next rate-setting meeting, which will include updated macroeconomic forecasts and revised forward guidance, is scheduled for Jul. 30.

Crude steel production in Ukraine jumped by 22% m-o-m to 629 kt in May, narrowing the y-o-y contraction to -1.0% from -26% in April and bringing 5M26 output to 2.9 Mt (-6.1% y-o-y). Metinvest’s Zaporizhstal JV produced 209 kt of crude steel in May, up 33% m-o-m but down 25% y-o-y, and 1.2 Mt in 5M26 (-11% y-o-y), accounting for 33% of total monthly output and 40% of YTD production.

Ukraine is on track to manufacture around 10 million unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in 2026 and has the capacity to double that level of production, President Volodymyr Zelensky said following meetings during the G7 summit in France.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Ukrainian Railways’ (RAILUA) long-term issuer rating at Restricted Default (RD) ahead of the Jul. 9 maturity of its $703m 2026 Eurobond, which is expected to be missed following the suspension of coupon payments in January.

President Volodymyr Zelensky had a meeting with US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France. Zelensky said he again raised with the US side the possibility of licensing production of antiballistic systems and interceptors in Ukraine, without providing other details. The US side did not comment on the discussion. On a related note, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha reported a separate meeting with Rubio, saying the prospective US-Iran deal “creates an opportunity to reenergize US-led peace efforts” to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Referring to Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and intensifying long-range strikes against Russia, Sybiha said “we see a growing momentum toward peace through strength.” In separate comments, Zelensky expressed hope that the US could use its leverage to organize high-level Ukrainian-Russian talks before winter. “We don't want to go through [another winter of mass Russian strikes] again. And Russia has ‌to know ... they ⁠will also not have a simple one.” Lastly, G7 leaders pledged in a post-summit statement to “accelerate this new momentum” in Ukraine’s favor by increasing the delivery of additional air defense capacities and long-range capabilities as well as exploring the possibility of licensing weapons production to Ukraine. The statement also pledged unspecified stronger sanctions against Russia, including measures targeting its oil and gas sectors, now that a US-Iran agreement has been reached.