NBU gross international reserves rose 11% m-o-m ($5.2bn) to $54.7bn in November (+25% YTD), equivalent to 5.6 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened 1.4% m-o-m to UAH 42.2:USD, after a 1.6% drop in October, but remained broadly flat YTD. The hryvnia also depreciated against the euro, by 0.7% m-o-m to UAH 48.9:EUR, widening its YTD decline to 10%.

The average baseload day-ahead (DAHD) electricity price in Ukraine rose to UAH 6,388/MWh in November (EUR 131/MWh), up 6.2% m-o-m and 9.5% y-o-y. December baseload supply contracts on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange are currently priced at UAH 5,565/MWh (EUR 111/MWh), up 3.4% m-o-m but down 4.2% y-o-y.

We initiate coverage of Nasdaq-listed Kyivstar Group Ltd (Kyivstar), Ukraine’s top mobile network operator and leading digital player.

Ukraine’s direct and guaranteed public debt stood at $197bn as of end-October, up 1.5% m-o-m and 19% YTD.

Ukraine’s parliament approved the 2026 state budget at its second and final reading yesterday, setting revenue and expenditure (including net crediting) targets at UAH 2,918bn and UAH 4,820bn, implying a deficit of UAH 1,902bn, or 18.5% of the government’s nominal GDP forecast. The bill envisages that next year’s deficit will be financed solely through external borrowing, projected at $47bn gross and $44bn net.

Monthly salaries paid to staff workers in Ukraine averaged UAH 26,913 ($646) in October (including personal income tax and military duty), up 1.1% m-o-m after 2.7% growth in September, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS). Separately, the survey-assessed unemployment rate rose to 13.0% in October from 11.4% in September but remained below the YTD monthly average of 13.5%, according to local market research firm Info Sapiens.

Ukraine’s headline current account (CA) deficit narrowed to $2.1bn in October from $3.2bn in September, bringing the 10M25 gap to $27bn vs. $14bn in 10M24. The financial and capital account (FA) surplus, including IMF funds, widened to $5.1bn from $3.4bn in September, boosting the 10M25 surplus to $31bn from $9.5bn a year earlier. The overall balance of payments surplus rose to $3.0bn from $0.2bn in September and $4.2bn in 10M25, up from a gap of $4.6bn in 10M24.

US President Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held five-hour talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin yesterday. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, who attended the talks, said “compromises have not yet been found [and] there is still a lot of work to be done.” He stressed that the issue of territorial control remained “the most important” and key to a settlement, adding that some unspecified points in the presented US peace framework “look more or less acceptable” but the wording of others “doesn’t work for us.” Ushakov added that there was no agreement on another Trump-Putin meeting and its prospects depended on diplomatic work to be carried out at lower levels. On a related note, NBC News reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified Russian official, that Russia will make no concessions on its three demands concerning Donbas territory (i.e. Ukraine’s full withdrawal from eastern Donetsk region), recognition of Russian territorial gains by the US and Europe, and limits on Ukraine’s armed forces. The Russian source added Russia was prepared to be flexible on “certain secondary issues” including the use of immobilized Russian assets held in Europe.

Construction output declined by 9.7% y-o-y in October, following growth of 23% in September and 24% in August and trimming the 10M25 rate to 12% from 16% in 9M25. In seasonally adjusted terms, construction fell 10.1% m-o-m in October following -0.4% in September.

Industrial production (IP) in Ukraine fell by 4.6% y-o-y in October following zero growth in September and a 0.5% increase in August, widening the 10M25 decline to 2.2% from 2.0% in 9M25. According to statistical official estimates, seasonally adjusted IP decreased by 3.5% m-o-m in October after rising 1.3% in September.

The Ukrainian government has launched an open tender aiming to exchange GDP warrants with a notional amount of $3.2bn ($2.6bn held by market participants) into new sovereign bonds at a 1.34x ratio. The exchange offer is accompanied by a consent solicitation requesting to amend the warrant terms that would facilitate a mandatory exchange for holdout investors. The Ukrainian Finance Ministry said in a statement that its proposal “is based on feedback we received from market participants and takes into account comments on economics and structure provided by the Ad Hoc Committee” and expressed confidence that the restructuring will be supported by warrant holders.

The National Bank’s survey-based index of business activity, a PMI-type gauge, stood at 49.4 on a 0-100 scale in November, down 0.8pt m-o-m but up 2.3pt y-o-y.

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on Friday a decree dismissing his long-time chief of staff Andriy Yermak. The announcement came after the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) searched Yermak’s Kyiv apartment earlier the same day. Media linked the searches to NABU’s ongoing investigation into alleged large-scale corruption at a state energy company in which the anticorruption body earlier implicated two current and one former government ministers as well as Zelensky’s former business ally. Although NABU did not bring charges against Yermak following the searches, he tendered his resignation to Zelensky.

Key highlights: ·    Russian forces intensified ground and aerial assaults last week as the US stepped up its peace efforts. ·    The Ukrainian military reported an average of 222 Russian attacks per day, a new high. Despite that, Russian territorial gains remained modest at around 80 km2, limited to several sectors in Zaporizhya and Donetsk regions, while Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in Dnipropetrovsk region.  ·    Ukraine and Russia continue attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, with Ukraine expanding its asymmetric actions to target Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, reported 1Q26FY financials (calendar 3Q25) with sales of $826m, -19% q-o-q and +3.5% y-o-y, EBITDA of $144m, +109% q-o-q and -15% y-o-y, and net income of $95m, up 4.75x q-o-q and -21% y-o-y.

The National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) announced this morning it was conducting searches on the premises of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak. “The investigative actions are authorized and are being carried out within the framework of an investigation,” NABU said in a statement. Yermak shortly confirmed that NABU and the Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office were conducting “procedural actions” at his Kyiv apartment, adding that the law enforcement bodies faced no obstacles and had his full cooperation.