Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a provisional $4.4bn in July, up from $3.9bn in June and $2.8bn in May, as imports surged 10% m-o-m to $7.6bn (+29% y-o-y), fully offsetting a 5.4% m-o-m recovery in exports to $3.3bn (+6.8% y-o-y).

Ukraine’s iron ore exports totaled 19.1 Mt in 7M25 (-8% y-o-y), implying 3.0 Mt in July, up 16% m-o-m and 21% y-o-y. In value terms, iron ore exports amounted to $1.5bn in 7M25 (-20% y-o-y), implying a 2% m-o-m drop in July to $191m (-17% y-o-y).  Steel exports dropped 9.3% y-o-y to 2.2 Mt in 7M25, implying an 8.6% m-o-m increase in July to 334 kt (-18% y-o-y). In value terms, steel exports totaled $1.3bn in 7M25 (-10% y-o-y), suggesting a 0.5% m-o-m pickup in July to $191m (-17% y-o-y).

US President Donald Trump said he aimed to negotiate a ceasefire at Friday’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and warned that Russia would face “very severe consequences” otherwise.

Naftogaz has secured a EUR 500m revolving loan from the EBRD to finance gas purchases, supported by an EU guarantee under the Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF), which covers 90% of the loan. The company did not disclose the loan terms. According to EBRD Alternate Board Director Artem Shevalev, the loan will be supplemented by a similarly structured loan of EUR 300m from the EIB and a new undisclosed grant from Norway.

The average baseload day-ahead (DAHD) electricity price stood at UAH 5,184/MWh in July, up 11.1% m-o-m but down 6.9% y-o-y, equivalent to EUR 106/MWh (+8.7% m-o-m, -15% y-o-y). August baseload electricity supply contracts at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange are currently priced at UAH 5,416/MWh, up 16% m-o-m and 7% y-o-y.

Daily crude steel production in Ukraine fell 9.6% m-o-m in July to 18.7 kt, reversing a 1.0% increase in June, bringing monthly output to 581 kt (-6.6% m-o-m, -18% y-o-y) and cumulative 7M25 output to 4.3 Mt (-7.0% y-o-y). Finished and semi-finished steel production totaled 552 kt in July (-2.0% m-o-m, -6.2% y-o-y) and 3.6 Mt in 7M25 (-2.8% y-o-y). Hot metal production reached 692 kt in July (+4.6% m-o-m, +11% y-o-y) and 4.4 Mt in January–July (+6.7% y-o-y).

Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses north of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, reportedly advancing by over 15 km in the past three days, according to Ukrainian and foreign OSINT sources. The Ukrainian military command indirectly confirmed the Russian advances, its Monday battlefield updates mentioning Russian attacks near several new villages and admitting Russian small-group infiltrations behind Ukrainian lines in the Pokrovsk sector.

According to provisional Finance Ministry data, the central budget’s cash deficit stood at UAH 140bn ($3.3bn) in July, after a UAH 105bn ($2.5bn) gap in June, bringing the 7M25 shortfall to UAH 686bn ($16.4bn) versus $19.1bn in 7M24.

State rail monopoly Ukrainian Railways (RAILUA) reported 1H25 freight transportation of 79.6 Mt, down 12% y-o-y. Export-bound deliveries dropped 14% y-o-y to 38.7 Mt, while domestic cargo transportation declined 12% y-o-y to 35.5 Mt. Import shipments reached 5.3 Mt, up 5.4% y-o-y, while transit volumes remained negligible at just 0.1 Mt.

US President Donald Trump announced on Friday he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15. The Kremlin confirmed the summit and invited Trump to hold the next round of US-Russian negotiations in Russia. Concurrently, Western media, citing anonymous sources, reported details of Russia’s latest proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal said Russia wanted Ukraine to withdraw from the entirety of eastern Donetsk region as its condition for freezing the front lines and stopping the fighting before negotiating a more comprehensive settlement, possibly including unspecified territorial exchanges. Trump also said on Friday that “some swapping of territories to the betterment of [Ukraine and Russia]” was under discussion.

Key highlights: Russian forces made new tactical advances in Donetsk region, but the intensity of attacks slowed. The US-European initiative to supply weapons to Ukraine is gaining traction, with $1bn worth of new supplies announced last week. Ukraine attacked four Russian oil refineries in two weeks, raising questions about the durability of the US-brokered energy ceasefire.

Ukraine’s headline CPI edged down by 0.2% m-o-m in July, following a 0.8% rise in June, bringing the y-o-y rate to 14.1% from 14.3% in June and a 15.9% peak in May. Core inflation, which excludes administratively regulated tariffs and prices of raw foods and energy, rose 0.3% m-o-m, matching June’s pace, with y-o-y growth slowing to 11.7% from 12.1%.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimated real GDP growth at 0.8% y-o-y in June (±0.5pp), broadly in line with May’s 0.9% (revised down from 1.2%). The Ministry’s estimate for 1H25 growth is +0.8% y-o-y, close to the +0.9% in 1Q25 reported by the statistical office. Growth was supported by resilient domestic demand and stable power supplies, which fueled energy production, processed industry, and retail turnover, offsetting weaker agricultural output due to a delayed start to the harvest, the Ministry said.

NBU gross foreign reserves fell 4.5% m-o-m ($2.0bn) to $43.0bn in July (-1.7% YTD), equivalent to 4.7 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official exchange rate was flat m-o-m at UAH 41.8:USD, up 0.7% YTD but down 1.8% y-o-y.

The State Statistic Service (SSS) reported real retail turnover growth of 7.0% y-o-y in May, up from 6.6% in April, bringing the 5M25 tally to +5.9%, following 5.5% in 4M25.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday he saw “a very good prospect” for arranging a meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia “very soon.” According to the New York Times, Trump held a phone call with European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky shortly after his envoy Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, telling them that he may meet with Putin as early as next week, followed by a trilateral meeting including himself, Zelensky, and Putin.