President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted to parliament a bill of legislative amendments aimed at restoring the independence of the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) after it was undermined by legislation passed earlier this week that led to sharp criticism from Western governments and IFIs and sparked domestic protests.

The NBU Board left the central bank’s key policy rate unchanged at 15.5% at its Jul. 24 meeting, maintaining the level set in March following a cumulative 250bp increase between December 2024 and March 2025. The decision aligned with the NBU’s prior forward guidance and was underpinned by the anticipated U-turn in headline inflation in June, a stable foreign exchange market, and broadly anchored inflation expectations.

WSE-listed Astarta Holding, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, reported a 5.7% q-o-q decline in 2Q25 sugar sales, to 73 kt (-49% y-o-y), priced at $584/t on average (+6.9% q-o-q, -5.4% y-o-y). Grain and oilseed sales slumped by 70% q-o-q to 40 kt (-68% y-o-y). Soybean oil sales dropped 1.9% q-o-q to 12 kt (-14% y-o-y), while soybean meal sales increased 1.0% q-o-q to 44 kt (-1.6% y-o-y).

Recent developments suggest that conditions that would compel Russia to wind down the war are unlikely to emerge in the near future, though the probability remains that Russia will agree to serious negotiations later, possibly after more decisive steps by the US. We maintain our extended-war macro scenario for 2025 and develop two scenarios for 2026: (i) continued war accompanied by renewed attacks on infrastructure, and (ii) settlement based off the current battle lines.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday he would submit to parliament a bill safeguarding the independence of Ukraine’s anticorruption institutions. PM Yulia Svyrydenko made a similar announcement following her meeting with G7 ambassadors, saying Zelensky’s bill will aim to resolve all outstanding disagreements and make anticorruption agencies immune to external influence.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul yesterday, their third round of talks after two previous meetings on Jun. 2 and May 16. Wednesday’s talks reportedly lasted around 40 minutes, less than the first and second rounds of more than an hour each. No date for the next meeting was agreed. Separately, the US State Department announced two potential military sale transactions with Ukraine: HAWK air defense systems and related equipment for $172m and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and related maintenance/repair services for $150m.

Naftogaz has secured a UAH 4.7bn ($104m) loan from Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest bank, and a similarly sized loan from another state-owned lender, Ukrgazbank, to finance natural gas imports for the upcoming heating season. The company did not disclose the loan terms.

Ukrainian parliament passed, and President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately signed, a bill that was widely criticized for undermining the independence of the country’s principal anti-corruption bodies, the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Tuesday’s developments came a day after the State Security Service raided the two agencies’ offices and homes of NABU detectives in what was described as a Russian infiltration probe. In a late-night address, Zelensky reported his meeting with the NABU and SAPO leadership and said “the anti-corruption infrastructure will work, only without Russian influence — it needs to be cleared of that.” Transparency International Ukraine (TIU), part of the global anticorruption watchdog, said the bill Zelensky signed into law “opened the door to manual interference in anticorruption investigations, undermined the independence of NABU and SAPO, and enabled political pressure in cases involving top officials” by giving the Prosecutor General, a politically appointed figure, the discretion to close or otherwise interfere with NABU investigations. “The adopted law directly violates Ukraine’s commitments to the IMF and other international partners,” TIU said.

DTEK Holding CEO Maksym Timchenko estimated losses incurred by DTEK Oil & Gas (DTEKOG) from Russian attacks on company assets in February-March this year at around EUR 30m. The company plans to keep 2025 gas production at 1.5 bcm, as guided earlier, and increase it in 2026 on account of new drilling at recently acquired license fields.

Based on Bloomberg data, Naftogaz has made scheduled payments on its 2025 Eurobonds, including $165m of remaining principal and $6.3m of accrued interest. The company also paid EUR 49m in coupons on its 2026 Eurobonds. However, the much larger EUR 695m Eurobond maturing in 2026 — combined with weaker financials and lower liquidity — suggests that Naftogaz will likely seek to extend its 2026 maturity and potentially 2028 notes to smooth its redemption profile. While the company has not yet commented on its plans, we think it may approach bondholders in early 2026 or after the conclusion of the 2025/26 heating season.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said she would seek a new IMF program, stating that “global donors have so far earmarked only half of the estimated $75bn that the war-strained budget requires over the next two years … if the baseline scenario assumes the war will continue into the next year.” She noted that discussions on economic and military scenarios will be part of the IMF mission’s visit to Ukraine in August, with the aim of assessing whether a new program is warranted and what its parameters might be.

Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) conducted large-scale raids at the National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) on Monday, which were presented as uncovering suspected Russian agents. The SBU said it detained an employee of NABU’s central office for alleged spying for Russia’s FSB security service and also arrested one of NABU’s senior detectives implicated in doing business in Russia via his relatives. Additionally, the SBU said it exposed Ukrainian lawmaker Fedir Khrystenko, a pro-Russian MP who fled Ukraine shortly after the Russian invasion, accusing him of overseeing Russian infiltration efforts at NABU and being in close contact with several NABU officials.

WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, published its 4Q25FY (calendar 2Q25) operating results, reporting vegetable oil sales of 381 kt, up 9.8% q-o-q but down 1.6% y-o-y. The volume of crushed oilseeds rose by 13% q-o-q to 952 kt (flat y-o-y). Quarterly grain exports totaled 1.0 Mt, down 38% q-o-q and 39% y-o-y due to reduced domestic grain supply following a smaller 2024 harvest. Crop throughput at Kernel’s Black Sea export terminals reached 1.8 Mt, down 28% q-o-q and 20% y-o-y.

Key highlights: Russian forces keep up offensive pressure, making further tactical gains in Donetsk region. Equipment loss dynamics show Russia’s growing reliance on light-infantry assaults for battlefield gains.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations may hold a new round of talks in Istanbul on Wednesday or Thursday this week, Turkish media reported, citing diplomatic sources. The report followed President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement on Saturday that Ukraine proposed scheduling a new meeting with Russia this week while the sides were completing prisoner exchanges agreed during their previous meeting in Istanbul.

LSE-listed MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry producer, has attracted up to EUR 100m in loans from development finance institutions, including EUR 40m from the EBRD, EUR 30m from British International Investment, EUR 20m from Swedfund (Sweden), and another EUR 10m from undisclosed sources.