Research

Welcome to our research portal. We provide comprehensive coverage on Ukrainian macroeconomics and politics as well as all major domestic industries such as metals and mining, agriculture, machine-building, fuel and energy, banking and others from both the equities and fixed income perspectives. 

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Market View

  • Fixed income

    The sovereign continued to drift lower in very shallow liquidity, closing around 50c down.

  • Equities

    Tuesday was relatively quiet for foreign-listed Ukrainian names, with the KP-Dragon index closing 0.4% lower. In London, MHPC dipped by 0.3% to $6.02, while FXPO closed flat. In Warsaw, AST fell 1% on tiny turnover, KER edged 0.1% lower, and IMC rose 3.5% on tiny volume. KYIV closed 0.9% up at $12.03 on turnover of $5.7m. Mixed global markets imply sideways trading for Ukrainian names today.

Daily show all results

08.10.2025
| Daily

NBU reserves up 1% to $46.5bn in September; hryvnia flat m-o-m at UAH 41.3:USD

NBU gross foreign reserves rose by 1.1% m-o-m (+$0.5bn) to $46.5bn in September (+6.2% YTD), equivalent to 5.1 months of prospective goods and services imports. The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar was unchanged both m-o-m...
08.10.2025
| Daily

Current grain and oilseed harvest at 43 Mt (-20% y-o-y)

According to the Agriculture Ministry, as of Oct. 3 Ukrainian farmers harvested 42.6 Mt of grain and oilseed crops (-20% y-o-y) from an area of 12.7 Mha (-19% y-o-y) or 64% of this year’s total acreage. With the harvest of early crops (wheat,...
07.10.2025
| Daily

Gov’t proposes hiking military spending and increasing headline deficit target to $52bn (24% of GDP)

The Cabinet of Ministers endorsed amendments to the 2025 budget law, proposing to increase security and defense outlays by UAH 325bn ($7.7bn at the government’s latest 2025 annual average exchange rate forecast of UAH 42.4:USD, revised from UAH...

Reports show all results

24.09.2025
| Reports

Metinvest: What Could Upcoming Restructuring Look Like?

Metinvest announced last week that it plans to extend its $428m 2026 bond and may also manage its $332m 2027 Eurobond. The announcement was in line with our expectations, as we recently highlighted the growing likelihood of such a move due to the...
20.08.2025
| Reports

Ukrainian Eurobonds: Reassessing Valuations As Diplomatic Efforts Intensify

Another US diplomatic push to end the war in Ukraine has gained momentum in recent weeks, resulting, on Aug. 15, in the first face-to-face meeting between the US and Russian presidents since the start of the war. While there have been no major...
05.08.2025
| Reports

Ukraine: Macro Outlook & Fixed Income Market Overview

In this presentation, we provide an update on the battlefield situation in Ukraine, summarize our recently published macro outlook for 2025 and 2026, and discuss our views on the sovereign, quasi-sovereign and corporate Eurobonds.
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
FXPO LN GBp 53.0 53.1 53.1 4.5
AST PW PLN 43.5 44.15 44.15 1.4
IMC PW PLN 22.9 23.6 23.6 0.8
KER PW PLN 18.9 18.98 18.98 0.0
MHPC LI USD 5.84 5.96 5.84 -3.0
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
MHPC LI USD 5.84 5.96 5.84 -3.0
KER PW PLN 18.9 18.98 18.98 0.0
IMC PW PLN 22.9 23.6 23.6 0.8
AST PW PLN 43.5 44.15 44.15 1.4
FXPO LN GBp 53.0 53.1 53.1 4.5
Ticker Currency Close 1D, % Volume
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
SPX 6751.18 0.54 3.94 14.78
PFTS 457.18 0.00 -1.30 -9.06
DAX 24597.13 0.87 3.32 23.55
FTSE100 9548.87 0.69 3.55 16.83
KP-Dragon 1,960.41 -0.43 -0.79 13.29
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
CDX.EM 97.88852 0.00 -0.15 0.95
5-year UST 99.5703125 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-year UST 100.984375 0.00 0.00 0.00
6M USD LIBOR 4.68213 -0.17 -8.86 -16.18
12M USD LIBOR 6.04143 1.36 5.43 10.20
Ukraine A29 67.5 -0.74 4.25 -3.23
Ukraine A36 54.0 -0.92 2.37 -0.92
Ukraine B36 47.75 -1.55 -8.17 -19.41
EMBI+ Ukraine 1,040.00 1.66 -5.80 48.17
CEMBI Ukraine 1,222.44 0.31 3.96 12.34
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
UAH:USD (NBU) 41.4 -0.21 -0.37 1.51
UAH:EUR (NBU) 48.14 0.07 0.51 -9.25
USD:GBP 1.34 -0.19 -1.07 7.06
USD:EUR 1.16 -0.24 -1.14 12.31
PLN:USD 3.66 -0.27 -1.31 12.91
Name Close 1D, % 1M, % YTD, %
WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) 61.73 0.06 -0.23 -13.93
Corn ($/t) 165.3 -0.47 5.20 -8.45
Wheat ($/t) 186.2 -1.17 1.15 -8.11
Sugar ($/t) 366.7 -1.07 6.95 -13.66
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
AST PW PLN 43.50 44.15 44.15 1.38
FXPO LN GBp 53.00 53.10 53.10 4.53
IMC PW PLN 22.90 23.60 23.60 0.85
KER PW PLN 18.90 18.98 18.98 0.00
MHPC LI USD 5.84 5.96 5.84 -2.99
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %
Ticker Currency Bid Ask Close 1D, %

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