Экономика Украины

Основная информация

  • Столица: Киев
  • Президент: Петро Порошенко
  • Телефонный код: +380
  • Население: 45.4 млн. (2013)
  • Валюта: Украинская гривна (грн)
  • ВВП на душу населения: 2,192 $ (2016)

Украина является второй по величине страной в Европе. Ее территория расположена в юго-восточной части континента: на западе и юго-западе Украина граничит с Польшей, Словакией, Венгрией, Румынией и Молдовой, на севере и востоке — с Белоруссией и Россией, а на юге омывается водами Черного и Азовского морей. Общая площадь государства составляет 603 700 км2.

Ключевые макроэкономические индикаторы:

  Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
Реальный сектор
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.9% (0.5%) (1.3%) 1.4%
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) (9.0%) (13.0%) (1.5%) 1.1% (1.8%) (1.0%) (0.6%) 2.6% 36.4% (11.2%) 9.0% 11.4% 28.5%
Av. Wage ($/month) 275 277 313 275 290 316 324 334 347 343 317 320 327
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 14.6% 13.6% 13.7% 14.1% 14.0% 13.2% 13.1% 11.7% 9.9% 8.9% 9.0% 8.9% 9.5%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 8.1% 8.6% 9.5% 9.8% 9.7% 9.4% 9.4% 9.3% 9.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% 8.8%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 18.8% 18.4% 16.5% 22.0% 19.6% 15.9% 14.1% 16.5% 18.4% 18.1% 19.3% 18.9% 16.6%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (1.7) (1.7) (2.4) 0.1 0.2 (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (1.6) (2.0) (3.3) 0.0
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) - - (2.2%) - - (2.2%) - - (2.2%) - - - 0.0%
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (6.7) (7.4) (8.6) (0.6) (1.3) (2.0) (2.3) (3.2) (4.0) (5.6) (6.6) (8.0) 0.0
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 43.9 49.0 53.9 4.5 8.9 13.8 18.8 23.8 28.5 33.3 38.5 43.2 0.0
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 18.9% 18.3% 17.1% 18.8% 14.8% 9.2% 11.4% 11.7% 11.4% 11.8% 11.7% 10.4% 0.0%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 50.7 56.4 62.5 5.1 10.2 15.8 21.1 26.9 32.5 38.9 45.0 51.3 0.0
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 20.3% 19.9% 19.2% 28.0% 18.3% 12.8% 13.5% 13.9% 13.4% 14.6% 14.2% 14.0% 0.0%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) 2.1 2.5 2.6 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.0 0.0
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 2.9 3.3 3.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 0.0
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 3.8 4.2 5.0 (0.6) (0.4) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.9 0.0
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)2 795 895 987 71 147 246 341 460 560 644 761 849 945
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)2 33.6% 29.3% 26.1% (1.7%) 3.4% 11.7% 15.8% 21.3% 20.0% 19.9% 19.4% 19.4% 18.9%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 793 891 1,059 51 132 252 348 453 557 645 735 843 938
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 27.5% 26.9% 26.4% 6.9% 6.0% 16.3% 22.1% 26.5% 25.5% 25.3% 22.8% 20.5% 18.3%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn)2 2 4 (72) 21 15 (5) (8) 7 3 (0) 26 7 7
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (1.0%) (1.4%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (2.8%) (2.8%) (3.1%) (3.0%) (3.0%) (3.2%) (2.8%) (2.6%) (2.4%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 76 76 76 76 77 77 77 76 76 76 75 75 74
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 71.3% 70.5% 71.8% 70.7% 67.7% 66.4% 64.3% 62.5% 62.1% 61.6% 63.3% 62.2% 60.7%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 28 27 27 27
External Public Debt ($bn) 49 49 49 49 49 49 48 47 47 47 48 48 47
Debt to IMF ($bn) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 377 379 399 392 405 393 412 407 420 421 422 424 425
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 6.2% 5.9% 4.6% 8.4% 12.0% 10.2% 11.9% 10.6% 10.0% 10.8% 11.3% 13.6% 12.9%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,126 1,130 1,209 1,176 1,170 1,169 1,191 1,198 1,213 1,230 1,233 1,249 1,245
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 6.7% 8.1% 9.6% 10.4% 10.4% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0% 9.9% 10.3% 11.7% 11.1% 10.6%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 988 988 1,015 1,046 1,031 1,029 1,031 1,035 1,023 1,042 1,088 1,100 1,105
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) 0.5% 0.5% 1.8% 6.4% 6.0% 6.6% 7.4% 8.4% 7.3% 9.3% 13.8% 13.1% 11.9%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 817 819 876 855 849 845 860 863 866 880 887 898 894
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 7.3% 8.5% 11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 7.8% 8.8% 9.6% 9.0% 9.6% 11.5% 9.9% 9.4%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 15.1% 16.3% 17.0% 16.3% 17.0% 17.5% 17.7% 17.9% 18.0% 17.9% 18.8% 20.7% 20.5%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 8.4% 9.1% 9.6% 9.8% 10.4% 11.0% 11.3% 11.3% 11.5% 11.9% 12.2% 12.7% 13.3%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) (0.0) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 (0.1) (0.7) 0.1 0.2
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 18.7 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.2 16.6 16.7
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 26.83 27.01 28.07 28.01 26.95 26.54 26.20 26.14 26.33 26.76 28.28 28.30 28.16
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 26.65 26.70 27.51 28.42 27.16 26.34 26.14 26.18 26.22 26.39 27.50 28.19 28.12
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 26.87 27.08 28.13 27.80 26.80 26.25 26.20 26.11 26.35 26.92 28.25 28.23 28.19
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 26.65 26.72 27.57 28.41 27.10 26.30 26.13 26.17 26.23 26.43 27.57 28.18 28.11
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Реальный сектор
Реальный ВВП (% г/г) 2.4% 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 2.8%
Household Consumption (y-o-y; %) 6.6% 11.1% 5.6% 4.2% -
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (y-o-y; %) 15.0% 16.7% 17.0% 14.2% -
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)1 833 894 700 1,508 -
Nominal GDP ($bn) 32 33 26 31 -
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 2.2% (1.3%)
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) (3.0%) (1.5%) (1.0%) 36.4% 11.4%
Av. Wage ($/month) 279 288 294 335 327
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 16.4% 13.7% 13.2% 9.9% 8.9%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 7.7% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 8.7%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 22.4% 16.5% 15.9% 18.4% 18.9%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (1.5) (2.4) (0.6) (0.6) (3.3)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (1.6%) (2.2%) (2.2%) (2.2%) -
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (5.8) (8.6) (2.0) (4.0) (8.0)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 39.2 53.9 13.8 28.5 43.2
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 19.2% 17.1% 9.2% 11.4% 10.4%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 45.0 62.5 15.8 32.5 51.3
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 19.9% 19.2% 12.8% 13.4% 14.0%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) 1.6 2.6 0.5 1.6 2.0
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 2.6 3.6 0.9 1.8 2.8
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) 3.4 5.0 0.3 0.9 2.9
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn) 116 115 115 114 -
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn) 2 712 987 246 560 849
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 2 35.5% 26.1% 11.7% 20.0% 19.4%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 700 1,059 252 557 843
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 25.6% 26.4% 16.3% 25.5% 20.5%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2 12 (72) (5) 3 7
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (0.4%) (2.4%) (2.8%) (3.0%) (2.6%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 77 76 77 76 75
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 72.7% 71.8% 66.4% 62.1% 62.2%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 27 27 29 29 27
External Public Debt ($bn) 50 49 49 47 48
Debt to IMF ($bn) 14 14 14 13 12
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 373 399 393 420 424
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 5.1% 4.6% 10.2% 10.0% 13.6%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,124 1,209 1,169 1,213 1,249
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 6.6% 9.6% 8.7% 9.9% 11.1%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 973 1,015 1,029 1,023 1,100
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) (1.6%) 1.8% 6.6% 7.3% 13.1%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 817 876 845 866 898
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 7.5% 11.2% 7.8% 9.0% 9.9%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 14.4% 16.1% 16.9% 18.0% 20.7%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 8.6% 9.0% 10.4% 11.5% 12.7%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 0.1 (0.2) 0.8 0.5 (0.7)
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 18.6 18.8 18.2 18.0 16.6
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.9
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 26.52 28.07 26.54 26.33 28.30
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 25.90 26.96 27.31 26.18 27.36
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 26.60 28.13 26.25 26.35 28.23
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 25.92 26.98 27.27 26.18 27.39
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Реальный сектор *** ***
Рост реального ВВП (% г/г) (9.8%) 2.4% 2.5% *** ***
Nominal GDP (UAH bn) 1,989 2,385 2,983 *** ***
Nominal GDP ($bn) 91 93 112 *** ***
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $) 2,130 2,192 2,647 *** ***
Real Industrial Output (y-o-y; %) (13.0%) 2.4% 0.4% *** ***
Real Agricultural Output (y-o-y; %) (4.8%) 6.1% (2.7%) *** ***
Average Wage ($/month) 192 203 267 *** ***
Unemployment (by ILO methodology; %) 9.1% 9.3% 9.5% *** ***
Prices *** ***
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 43.3% 12.4% 13.7% *** ***
Consumer Price Index (avg.; y-o-y; %) 48.7% 13.9% 14.4% *** ***
GDP Deflator (y-o-y; %) 38.4% 17.1% 22.0% *** ***
External Sector *** ***
Current Account Balance ($bn) 1.6 (1.3) (2.4) *** ***
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8% (1.4%) (2.2%) *** ***
Exports ($bn) 47.9 46.0 53.8 *** ***
Imports ($bn) 50.2 52.5 62.4 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow ($bn) 3.0 3.3 2.6 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow (% of GDP) 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% *** ***
Gross External Debt ($bn) 118 113 - *** ***
Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 129% 121% - *** ***
Public Finances** *** ***
General Government Revenues (% of GDP) 41.9% 37.4% 39.3% *** ***
General Government Spending (% of GDP) 43.0% 39.7% 41.6% *** ***
General Government Balance (% of GDP) (1.2%) (2.3%) (2.4%) *** ***
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% *** ***
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) (0.9%) 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Combined Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.0%) (2.3%) (2.4%) *** ***
Banking System Budget Support (% of GDP) (2.3%) (5.4%) (2.4%) *** ***
Total Public Debt ($bn) 65.5 71.0 76.3 *** ***
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 79.1% 80.9% 71.8% *** ***
External Public Debt ($bn) 43.4 45.6 49.0 *** ***
Debt to IMF ($bn) 12.5 13.5 14.0 *** ***
Monetary & Banking Indicators *** ***
Broad Money (M2) Growth (y-o-y; %) 4.0% 10.9% 9.7% *** ***
Total Credits (% of GDP) 49.2% 41.8% 34.0% *** ***
F/X Loans (% of GDP) 27.5% 20.7% 14.9% *** ***
Total Deposits (% of GDP) 35.7% 33.0% 29.4% *** ***
F/X Deposits (% of GDP) 16.1% 15.2% 12.9% *** ***
Credit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 21.2% 18.2% 15.3% *** ***
Deposit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 12.8% 11.5% 9.1% *** ***
Forex *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 13.3 15.5 18.8 *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves (months of imports) 3.2 3.6 3.6 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 24.00 27.19 28.07 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 21.83 25.55 26.59 *** ***
Note: *nominal indicators for 2014 and following years exclude Crimea, y-o-y changes are calculated with 2013 numbers rebased to exclude Crimea; **IMF estimates for years through 2015, DC estimates for 2016 onwards. SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics; the general government balance includes the central and local budgets and Pension Fund, but excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy deficit and bank rehabilitation costs. Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, IMF, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

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