Экономика Украины

Основная информация

  • Столица: Киев
  • Президент: Петро Порошенко
  • Телефонный код: +380
  • Население: 45.4 млн. (2013)
  • Валюта: Украинская гривна (грн)
  • ВВП на душу населения: 2,192 $ (2016)

Украина является второй по величине страной в Европе. Ее территория расположена в юго-восточной части континента: на западе и юго-западе Украина граничит с Польшей, Словакией, Венгрией, Румынией и Молдовой, на севере и востоке — с Белоруссией и Россией, а на юге омывается водами Черного и Азовского морей. Общая площадь государства составляет 603 700 км2.

Ключевые макроэкономические индикаторы:

  Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-00 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
Реальный сектор
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) (1.8%) (5.1%) 2.1% 4.8% (1.6%) 2.1% 0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0%
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 0.8% 1.2% (3.0%) (4.6%) (1.9%) 6.4% (3.0%) (9.0%) (13.0%) 0.0% 1.1% (1.8%) (1.0%)
Av. Wage ($/month) 250 251 260 282 283 278 277 275 277 0 275 290 316
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 15.1% 12.2% 13.5% 15.6% 15.9% 16.2% 16.4% 14.6% 13.6% 0.0% 14.1% 14.0% 13.2%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8% 7.7% 8.1% 8.6% 0.0% 9.8% 9.7% 9.4%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 38.3% 35.6% 27.1% 26.3% 23.3% 23.6% 22.4% 18.8% 18.4% 0.0% 22.0% 19.6% 15.9%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) (1.5) (1.7) (1.7) 0.0 0.1 0.2 (0.5)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (0.8%) - - (1.7%) - - (1.6%) - - 0.0% - - (2.1%)
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (1.4) (1.7) (2.4) (3.1) (4.2) (5.0) (5.8) (6.7) (7.4) 0.0 (0.5) (1.2) (1.9)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 12.7 16.9 21.3 25.6 29.8 34.4 39.2 43.9 49.0 0.0 4.5 8.9 13.8
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 28.8% 23.4% 23.0% 21.5% 20.1% 19.4% 19.2% 18.9% 18.3% 0.0% 18.8% 14.8% 9.2%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 14.0 18.6 23.6 28.7 33.9 39.4 45.0 50.7 56.4 0.0 5.1 10.2 15.7
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 20.8% 19.1% 22.2% 22.6% 21.9% 20.4% 19.9% 20.3% 19.9% 0.0% 27.5% 17.9% 12.4%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.0) 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.1) 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 3.4 3.8 4.2 0.0 (0.6) (0.4) 0.2
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)2 220 294 379 466 537 637 712 795 895 0 71 147 246
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y)2 34.9% 34.3% 35.4% 37.3% 38.1% 37.0% 35.5% 33.6% 29.3% 0.0% (1.7%) 3.4% 11.7%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 216 285 358 444 514 599 700 793 891 0 51 132 252
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 35.7% 27.3% 26.2% 26.5% 24.8% 25.6% 25.6% 27.5% 26.9% 0.0% 6.9% 6.0% 16.3%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn)2 4 9 21 22 23 39 12 2 4 0 21 15 (5)
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (2.1%) (1.6%) (1.1%) (0.8%) (0.3%) (0.1%) (0.4%) (1.0%) (1.4%) 0.0% (2.4%) (2.8%) (2.8%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 72 75 75 75 76 77 77 76 76 0 76 77 77
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 77.4% 77.2% 75.5% 73.9% 72.9% 71.0% 72.7% 71.3% 70.5% 0.0% 70.7% 67.7% 66.4%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 27 27 27 27 27 28 27 27 27 0 27 28 29
External Public Debt ($bn) 46 48 48 48 49 49 50 49 49 0 49 49 49
Debt to IMF ($bn) 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 0 14 14 14
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 357 368 368 382 380 379 373 377 379 0 392 405 393
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 9.1% 9.7% 9.1% 8.3% 7.0% 6.0% 5.1% 6.2% 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% 12.0% 10.2%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,075 1,089 1,089 1,103 1,115 1,105 1,124 1,126 1,130 0 1,176 1,170 1,169
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 6.7% 7.2% 6.7% 6.5% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 6.7% 8.1% 0.0% 10.4% 10.4% 8.7%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 965 959 954 954 953 956 973 988 988 0 1,046 1,031 1,029
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) (4.9%) (2.8%) (3.0%) (0.6%) (0.5%) (2.8%) (1.6%) 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 6.4% 6.0% 6.6%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 784 790 787 795 803 795 817 817 819 0 855 849 845
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 6.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.3% 7.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.3% 8.5% 0.0% 10.9% 10.6% 7.8%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 15.8% 15.3% 15.2% 14.7% 14.0% 14.3% 14.9% 15.1% 16.3% 0.0% 16.3% 17.0% 17.5%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 10.0% 9.6% 9.2% 8.9% 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 9.1% 0.0% 9.8% 10.4% 11.0%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.4 0.4
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 15.1 17.2 17.6 18.0 17.8 18.0 18.6 18.7 18.9 0.0 18.6 18.4 18.2
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.0 3.5 3.4 3.4
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 26.98 26.55 26.35 26.10 25.92 25.58 26.52 26.83 27.01 0.00 28.01 26.95 26.54
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 27.00 26.86 26.43 26.11 25.96 25.63 26.12 26.65 26.70 0.00 28.42 27.16 26.34
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 27.05 26.59 26.32 26.00 25.80 25.68 26.60 26.87 27.08 0.00 27.80 26.80 26.25
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 26.98 26.83 26.42 26.10 25.95 25.64 26.17 26.65 26.72 0.00 28.41 27.10 26.30
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
Реальный сектор
Реальный ВВП (% г/г) 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1%
Household Consumption (y-o-y; %) 5.1% 10.4% 6.6% 11.1% 5.6%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (y-o-y; %) 20.0% 23.4% 15.0% 16.7% 17.0%
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)1 591 665 833 894 700
Nominal GDP ($bn) 22 25 32 33 26
Real Industrial Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) (1.8%) 4.8% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0%
Real Agricultural Output (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 0.8% (4.6%) (3.0%) (1.5%) (1.0%)
Av. Wage ($/month) 234 264 279 288 294
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 15.1% 15.6% 16.4% 13.7% 13.2%
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; % y-o-y) 6.3% 6.8% 7.7% 9.5% 9.4%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 38.3% 26.3% 22.4% 16.5% 15.9%
External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.5) (0.3) (1.5) (2.4) (0.5)
C/A Balance (12m trailing; % of GDP) (0.8%) (1.7%) (1.6%) (2.2%) (2.1%)
Trade Balance (cum.; $bn) (1.4) (3.1) (5.8) (8.6) (1.9)
Total Exports (cum.; $bn) 12.7 25.6 39.2 53.9 13.8
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 28.8% 21.5% 19.2% 17.1% 9.2%
Total Imports (cum.; $bn) 14.0 28.7 45.0 62.5 15.7
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y) 20.8% 22.6% 19.9% 19.2% 12.4%
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.0) 1.0 1.6 2.6 0.5
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn) 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.6 0.9
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn) (0.1) 1.4 3.4 5.0 0.2
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn) 113 114 116 115 115
Public Finances
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; UAH bn) 2 220 466 712 987 246
Consolidated Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 2 34.9% 37.3% 35.5% 26.1% 11.7%
Consolidated Spending (cum.; UAH bn) 216 444 700 1,059 252
Consolidated Spending (cum.; % y-o-y) 35.7% 26.5% 25.6% 26.4% 16.3%
Consolidated Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2 4 22 12 (72) (5)
General Gov't Balance (12m trail.; % GDP)3 (2.1%) (0.8%) (0.4%) (2.4%) (2.8%)
Total Public Debt ($bn) 72 75 77 76 77
Total Public Debt (% of 12m trailing GDP) 77.4% 73.9% 72.7% 71.8% 66.4%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn) 27 27 27 27 29
External Public Debt ($bn) 46 48 50 49 49
Debt to IMF ($bn) 13 15 14 14 14
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn) 357 382 373 399 393
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y) 9.1% 8.3% 5.1% 4.6% 10.2%
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn) 1,075 1,103 1,124 1,209 1,169
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y) 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% 9.6% 8.7%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 965 954 973 1,015 1,029
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) (4.9%) (0.6%) (1.6%) 1.8% 6.6%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 784 795 817 876 845
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 6.4% 6.3% 7.5% 11.2% 7.8%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 15.7% 15.1% 14.4% 16.1% 16.9%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 9.7% 9.2% 8.6% 9.0% 10.4%
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn) 0.1 1.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.8
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 15.1 18.0 18.6 18.8 18.2
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports) 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 26.98 26.10 26.52 28.07 26.54
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 27.08 26.47 25.90 26.96 27.31
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 27.05 26.00 26.60 28.13 26.25
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 27.08 26.45 25.92 26.98 27.27
Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) 2014 data are adjusted for UAH 6.9bn of VAT bonds, 2015 data are adjusted for UAH 6.1bn of receipts from sales of 3G licenses (out of UAH 8.8bn total), which are counted below the line according to international standards; 3) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates
  2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019F
Реальный сектор *** ***
Рост реального ВВП (% г/г) (9.8%) 2.4% 2.5% *** ***
Nominal GDP (UAH bn) 1,989 2,385 2,983 *** ***
Nominal GDP ($bn) 91 93 112 *** ***
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $) 2,130 2,192 2,647 *** ***
Real Industrial Output (y-o-y; %) (13.0%) 2.4% 0.4% *** ***
Real Agricultural Output (y-o-y; %) (4.8%) 6.1% (2.7%) *** ***
Average Wage ($/month) 192 203 267 *** ***
Unemployment (by ILO methodology; %) 9.1% 9.3% 9.5% *** ***
Prices *** ***
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; y-o-y; %) 43.3% 12.4% 13.7% *** ***
Consumer Price Index (avg.; y-o-y; %) 48.7% 13.9% 14.4% *** ***
GDP Deflator (y-o-y; %) 38.4% 17.1% 22.0% *** ***
External Sector *** ***
Current Account Balance ($bn) 1.6 (1.3) (2.4) *** ***
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8% (1.4%) (2.2%) *** ***
Exports ($bn) 47.9 46.0 53.8 *** ***
Imports ($bn) 50.2 52.5 62.4 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow ($bn) 3.0 3.3 2.6 *** ***
Net FDI Inflow (% of GDP) 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% *** ***
Gross External Debt ($bn) 118 113 - *** ***
Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 129% 121% - *** ***
Public Finances** *** ***
General Government Revenues (% of GDP) 41.9% 37.4% 39.3% *** ***
General Government Spending (% of GDP) 43.0% 39.7% 41.6% *** ***
General Government Balance (% of GDP) (1.2%) (2.3%) (2.4%) *** ***
Primary Balance (% of GDP) 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% *** ***
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) (0.9%) 0.0% 0.0% *** ***
Combined Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.0%) (2.3%) (2.4%) *** ***
Banking System Budget Support (% of GDP) (2.3%) (5.4%) (2.4%) *** ***
Total Public Debt ($bn) 65.5 71.0 76.3 *** ***
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 79.1% 80.9% 71.8% *** ***
External Public Debt ($bn) 43.4 45.6 49.0 *** ***
Debt to IMF ($bn) 12.5 13.5 14.0 *** ***
Monetary & Banking Indicators *** ***
Broad Money (M2) Growth (y-o-y; %) 4.0% 10.9% 9.7% *** ***
Total Credits (% of GDP) 49.2% 41.8% 34.0% *** ***
F/X Loans (% of GDP) 27.5% 20.7% 14.9% *** ***
Total Deposits (% of GDP) 35.7% 33.0% 29.4% *** ***
F/X Deposits (% of GDP) 16.1% 15.2% 12.9% *** ***
Credit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 21.2% 18.4% 15.3% *** ***
Deposit Rates (avg.; hryvnia; % p.a.) 12.8% 11.6% 9.1% *** ***
Forex *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 13.3 15.5 18.8 *** ***
Gross F/X Reserves (months of imports) 3.2 3.6 3.6 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; e-o-p) 24.00 27.19 28.07 *** ***
UAH:USD (official rate; avg.) 21.83 25.55 26.59 *** ***
Note: *nominal indicators for 2014 and following years exclude Crimea, y-o-y changes are calculated with 2013 numbers rebased to exclude Crimea; **IMF estimates for years through 2015, DC estimates for 2016 onwards. SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics; the general government balance includes the central and local budgets and Pension Fund, but excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy deficit and bank rehabilitation costs. Source: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, IMF, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

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